F1 2025: Breaking down the numbers ahead of Drivers’ championship decider in Abu Dhabi

The lights have dimmed on the chaos of Qatar, the points have been tallied, and the paddock will be set up one last time next week at the Yas Marina Circuit for arguably the most nail-biting Formula 1 season finale in over a decade. 

After 23 gruelling races, the battle for the 2025 Drivers’ World Championship title has been distilled into one last, breathtaking, 58-lap calculation. For the first time since 2010, the crown is up for grabs among three protagonists: Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, and Oscar Piastri.

Here, we break down the numbers — the lead, the gaps, and the precise permutations required for each driver to lift the ultimate prize under the floodlights of Abu Dhabi.

Standings ahead of Abu Dhabi GP

For Norris, what looked like a comfortable 30-point lead over Piastri and a 42-point lead over Verstappen before the McLaren double disqualification in Las Vegas has been whittled down considerably, with the Dutchman appearing too close for comfort in his rear-view mirror.

The thrilling and controversial events of the Qatar Grand Prix saw Verstappen claim a crucial victory, Piastri finishing second, and standings leader Norris ending in fourth. This ensured the fight went to the wire, while dramatically reducing Norris’s healthy cushion at the top.

Norris has a 12-point lead over Verstappen and a 16-point advantage over his teammate, Piastri. Mathematically, the title remains his to lose, but the margin for error has been reduced to almost zero.

Here’s how all three drivers stack up heading into the season finale: 

Lando Norris: Three is the magic number

The equation for Norris is elegantly simple: finish on the podium, and the title is his.

Norris (408 points) needs to leave Abu Dhabi with at least one point more than Verstappen’s maximum possible score (396+25 = 421) or Piastri’s maximum (392+25 = 417).

Conditions for Norris to win the title

• If Norris secures a podium, not even a win will help Verstappen surpass Norris’s final tally.
• If Norris finishes 4th: He wins the title if Verstappen doesn’t win the race.
• If Norris finishes 5th: He wins the title if Verstappen doesn’t win the race.
• If Norris finishes 6th: He wins the title if neither Verstappen nor Piastri win the race.
• If Norris finishes 7th: He wins the title if neither Verstappen nor Piastri win the race.
• If Norris finishes 8th: He wins the title if Verstappen finishes third or lower and Piastri doesn’t win the race.
• If Norris finishes 9th: He wins the title if Verstappen finishes 4th or lower and Piastri doesn’t win the race.
• If Norris finishes 10th: He wins the title if Verstappen finishes 4th or lower and Piastri finishes 3rd or lower.
• If Norris finishes outside the points: He wins the title if Verstappen finishes 4th or lower and Piastri finishes 3rd or lower.

Plain and simple, isn’t it? 

Max Verstappen: A predator on the hunt

Once only perceived as an outsider for the title, the four-time world champion will be Norris’ biggest threat on Sunday. However, his 12-point deficit means his fate is not entirely in his own hands.

The Dutchman needs two things: a sensational performance from himself, and a significant failure from Norris.

Conditions for Verstappen to win the title

Verstappen can only win the title if he finishes in the top three and Norris finishes outside the podium.

• If Verstappen wins the race: He wins the title if Norris finishes 4th or lower.
• If Verstappen finishes 2nd: He wins the title if Norris finishes 8th or lower and Piastri doesn’t win the race.
• If Verstappen finishes 3rd: He wins the title if Norris finishes 9th or lower and Piastri doesn’t win the race.

Verstappen cannot win the championship if he finishes 4th or lower.

Oscar Piastri: The outside bet

While an incredible run of form has brought Piastri into contention for the title, his 16-point deficit makes him an outsider. His path to the WDC trophy is highly complex, requiring not only a perfect performance from himself but simultaneous catastrophic results for both Norris and Verstappen.

Conditions for Piastri to win the title

Realistically, Piastri must win the race, and Norris must have a race-ending failure or finish outside the top five.

• If Piastri wins the race: He wins the title if Norris finishes 6th or lower.
• If Piastri finishes 2nd: He wins the title if Norris finishes 10th or lower and Verstappen finishes 4th or lower.

Oscar Piastri cannot win the championship if he finishes 3rd or lower. 

What happens if there’s a tie?

There are a few scenarios where two drivers can finish level on points. For example, Verstappen finishing second and Norris finishing seventh would result in both drivers ending up on 414 points.

However, if a tie does occur, it would work out in favour of the British driver.

Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri are all tied for races won this season (seven), so the tie-breaker would instead go to a countback on second-place finishes, where Norris holds the advantage with eight P2 finishes compared to Verstappen’s five and Piastri’s four.

If Verstappen or Piastri wins the race, there is no scenario where the drivers finish level on points, making the race countback moot.

The final verdict

Math dictates that Norris is the overwhelming favourite. His 12-point buffer, and the simple reality that a P3 finish will seal the deal, give him strategic comfort neither of his rivals possesses. He can afford to be conservative and still achieve the ultimate goal.

However, the 2025 season has been defined by unpredictable variables: track limits, safety-car timings, and the inherent risk of an intra-team battle. The immense pressure on both McLaren drivers, on Norris to finally convert this lead, and on Piastri to achieve the improbable, introduces a human element that mathematics cannot model.

Verstappen and Red Bull will be forced to gamble aggressively. They must push the car to the absolute limit and hope that either mechanical failure or a midfield entanglement derails the orange machines ahead of them.

And so, Abu Dhabi is set up to be a true Formula 1 spectacle: a glorious battle where it will not only be about who has the fastest car, but also the mental fortitude to perfectly navigate both the Yas Marina circuit and the cold, unforgiving arithmetic of the World Drivers’ Championship.