The Ashes 2025/26 | Australia vs England | Fourth Test Preview and Predictions

The Ashes is done. Australia have retained the urn, and Bazball is all but buried.

The hosts continued their dominance as they picked up yet another comfortable win in Adelaide to go 3–0 in the series. Now, they’ll look to add to England’s misery.

The fourth game will be the iconic Boxing Day Test played in Melbourne. England, who admittedly did put up a fight last time out, will look to get something from the series before heading home. 

For the fourth Test of the 2025/26 Ashes series, here we present our preview and predictions.

The Ashes 2025/26 | 4th Test | 05:00 IST, December 26–30, 2025

The hosts have managed to win the series in a matter of 11 days without fielding their strongest XI once. Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood were not available for the first two Tests, while Steve Smith and Hazlewood missed out on the third, and yet Australia managed to be dominant and clinical to retain the Ashes in style.

That said, they come into the fourth Test a bit hamstrung. Captain Cummins, who missed the first two Tests due to not being fit in time following his stress fracture, is not risking himself any more and has officially ruled himself out for the remaining two games. Smith, who missed the second Test due to illness, will return to captain the team once again, while Nathan Lyon has been ruled out for the remainder of the Ashes as well following a hamstring injury.

With Smith missing out in Adelaide, Usman Khawaja came in as a last-minute replacement and duly stepped up, which was a positive sign both for the veteran batter and the struggling Australian top order in general. For Travis Head, moving up to the top of the order has been a revelation, and he has been the game-changer on multiple occasions. Alex Carey’s stunning century will also be something that the management will be pleased about. The only area of concern in the batting unit would be the inconsistent performances of Cameron Green and Marnus Labuschagne.

The Australian bowling attack has been led exceptionally by Mitchell Starc, who is showing no signs of slowing down. And while the likes of Scott Boland, Michael Neser, and Brendan Doggett are relatively inexperienced at the top level when compared to Cummins and Hazlewood, they have not suffered because of it. Starc will once again step up to lead the pace attack, while Lyon’s absence could see Australia turn to Todd Murphy.

England, meanwhile, are in turmoil both on and off the pitch. Ben Stokes and Co have been in the limelight for all the wrong reasons. After being blown away in the first two games, England put up their best show in the series in Adelaide, but even that wasn’t enough.

Even though their batting unit finally managed to put up some runs, Stokes and Brendon McCullum would be disappointed with the way some of the younger batters threw their wickets away after settling on the crease. Ollie Pope has been replaced by Jacob Bethell in the starting XI for this game, while Joe Root needs to regain some form, especially given his experience and importance to the team.

In the bowling department, Jofra Archer finally got among the wickets last time out but has been ruled out for the rest of the tour with a left-side strain, with Gus Atkinson replacing him in the starting XI for this Test. Josh Tongue has been England’s stand-out bowler, while the management will hope both Brydon Carse and Ben Stokes step up as well.

The iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground is set to host the Boxing Day Test. Its strip is expected to bring about plenty of runs while being assistive to spinners. Nathan Lyon’s absence will hurt Australia, and, while they might be 0–3 down and have lost the series, expect a wounded and disappointed England to bounce back hard. At the heart of Bazball lies the fact that England have always managed to hit their way out of whatever situation they’ve ended up in, and so we have the visitors as the favourites to pick up their first win of the series and end their long search for a win Down Under.

Fantasy XI: Ben Duckett, Travis Head, Steve Smith (c), Joe Root, Harry Brook, Cameron Green, Alex Carey (wk), Ben Stokes (vc), Will Jacks, Mitchell Starc, Gus Atkinson

Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Winners Prediction: England