UCL 2025/26: Quarter-finals first leg previews and predictions

Here, we present our previews and predictions for each first-leg encounter of the quarter-final stage of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League.

Sporting vs Arsenal

After being outclassed by Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City in the EFL Cup final, Mikel Arteta’s men then failed to make their superiority count in Saturday’s loss at St Mary’s, where Gyokeres’s equaliser was not enough to prevent the North London side from slipping to their first back-to-back defeats of the season – as well as crashing out of this year’s FA Cup competition in the quarter-final round. 

However, dreams of a double still remain very much alive, with the Gunners sitting nine points clear at the top of the Premier League table, albeit having played one game more than second-placed Manchester City, while a return to Champions League action offers further reason for optimism.

Although yet to register their first regulation-time win against Arsenal in five matches, Sporting can nevertheless be optimistic of getting the better of the Gunners on Tuesday, buoyed by their explosive home form, having won each of their last 17 matches in front of their supporters. Sporting’s impressive Champions League run has also been largely built on their formidable record at Jose Alvalade.

After suffering a 3-0 defeat in the round of 16 first leg at Bodo/Glimt, Rui Borges’s men became just the fifth side to overturn a three-goal deficit in the Champions League knockout, recording a stunning 5-0 triumph in the return leg at Jose Alvalade to seal a historic quarter-final berth. Thus, Tuesday’s encounter will be anything but a stroll in the park for the Gunners. 

In terms of team news and injuries, Sporting will take a last-minute call on striker Luis Suarez’s participation while the hosts will remain without Fotis Ioannidis, Geovany Quenda and Nuno Santos. Luis Guilherme is also a doubt due to an ankle problem, and Ivan Fresneda — who missed the previous outing through illness — is touch and go for this one. Furthermore, Sporting must cope without captain Morten Hjulmand, who is suspended for this clash. 

As for Arsenal, Mikel Arteta will be sweating over the fitness of centre-back Gabriel Maghalaes after the Brazilian was forced off the pitch against Southampton while, Eberechi Eze, Piero Hincapie and Mikel Merino are confirmed absentees for the trip to Lisbon as they continue their recoveries from injury.

Looking ahead to this contest, both sides enter with contrasting momentum but possess strong records to draw confidence from. This encounter therefore appears finely balanced, with the two teams likely to cancel each other out in a contest that could feature goals at both ends, particularly if the Gunners are unable to field their strongest defensive pairing.

Score Prediction: Sporting 2–2 Arsenal 

Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid

Atletico are preparing to face Barcelona for the second time in their run of three head-to-head matches in quick succession, with the Catalan club winning the first encounter at the Metropolitan Stadium last weekend which was a La Liga clash. 

With their Champions League qualification for next season almost secured but the league title out of sight, Diego Simeone’s side only have this competition and the Copa del Rey final on April 18, as the only two trophies they can lay their hands on this season. 

That said, their opponents have been ruthless of late, dispatching a hapless Newcastle United side in the Round of 16 second leg as well as running over their La Liga opponents with ease. However, unlike Atletico, their slender four-point lead at the top of the La Liga table means they can’t afford to take any domestic fixture lightly. 

Besides, these two sides have already met four times this season, with Atletico’s first leg 4-0 win at the Copa del Rey enough to take them to the final despite Barca’s second leg heroics while the Catalan club did the double over Atleti in the league. Thus, their recent head-to-head currently stands at 5-1 to Barca, including their latest win over the weekend. 

In terms of team news and injuries, 

Marcos Llorente, Johnny Cardoso and Pablo Barrios will definitely miss out for Atletico this weekend, while Jan Oblak, Marc Pubill,  Rodrigo Mendoza and Alexander Sorloth are regarded as doubts.

As for Barcelona, Raphinha suffered a hamstring injury while on international break, and will remain out of action until the start of May. Andreas Christensen remains a long-term absentee, while Frenkie de Jong sits out with a hamstring issue, but could potentially feature in the Champions League clash between the two sides next week. Meanwhile, both Jules Kounde and Alejandro Balde are back in training after recovering from their respective hamstring injuries.

Looking ahead to this fixture, Atletico have now lost three games on the bounce against Tottenham Hotspur, Real Madrid, and Barcelona last weekend, and they have somewhat of a midfield crisis for this match. Thus, despite some initial resistance maybe, we expect the Catalan giants to register a comfortable first leg win. 

Score Prediction: Barça 3–1 Atleti

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich

This is a blockbuster encounter between two of Europe’s elite clubs. Both Bayern Munich and Real Madrid have played each other several times in the Champions League though Los Blancos edge the Bavarians in the head-to-head record. 

Both Madrid and Bayern Munich played each other two seasons back in the UCL semi-finals where the Spanish giants prevailed 4-3 on aggregate over two legs and went on to win a record 15th Champions League trophy. 

However, this time around Bayern Munich is the more in-form team in comparison. While Real Madrid has had an inconsistent season both in the league and the Champions League, the German champions have been exceptional in all competitions. Bayern Munich are also coming off a tough game at the weekend where they came back from a 0-2 deficit to win 3-2. Madrid on the other hand, lost to Mallorca and went behind by seven points to league leaders Barcelona. Though, this was their first defeat in the last five games and Madrid have shown  improvements over the past month or so. 

From an injury perspective, both teams have been troubled by injuries. Real Madrid will miss Thibaut Courtois, Ferland Mendy, Dani Ceballos and Rodrygo for this game.  However, the good news for Real Madrid is the return of Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham after an injury layoff. Bayern Munich will be without Sven Ulreich, Cassiano Kiala, David Santos, Harry Kane and Wisdom Mike. 

Looking at the two teams, there isn’t much difference in quality as both teams have superb players but Real Madrid are playing at home and have a relatively stronger midfield. Having said that, Bayern will be a dangerous opponent as they just look imperious at the moment and even if they lose this game narrowly or draw, they have the advantage playing the second leg at home. 

We believe this could end in an entertaining draw as both teams like to play attacking football and could be vulnerable in defence. 

Score Prediction: Real Madrid 2–2 Bayern

Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool

This particular fixture is a repeat of last year’s Round of 16 draw where PSG and Liverpool played two really tight encounters with the French Champions prevailing on penalties and going on to win their first-ever Champions League title. 

PSG haven’t been as convincing as last season and didn’t start their Champions League campaign well yet again. However, they have just come back into form since January and are again looking dangerous. They just have one defeat from their last five and won their most recent league encounter against Toulouse at the weekend. 

Liverpool has endured a dismal season so far and it continued to haunt them as they were humiliated 4-0 by Manchester City in their FA Cup quarter-final fixture at the weekend. In their last five games, Liverpool have only won one game and that came against Galatasaray in the UCL where they produced a dominating performance at home. But other than that, Liverpool have been very poor. 

The Reds also have a few key players out injured for long-term. Alexander Isak has just returned to first team training from a broken ankle but it seems like this is a little too early for him to start. Alisson Becker, Conor Bradley, Wataru Endo, Geovanni Leoni and Stefan Bajcetic will all be out for this crucial encounter. PSG too have some important players out with unfortunate injuries to Bradley Barcola, Fabian Ruiz, Quentin Ndjantou and Senny Mayulu. 

Playing the first leg at the Parc des Princes, PSG are the overwhelming favourites for this game. Liverpool’s Champions League form has been comparatively better than their league form and if they do get away with a narrow loss or a draw away in Paris, they could have a chance at home but their current form doesn’t inspire much confidence. 

Moreover, PSG have an excellent forward line and midfield that could control the game and attack the leaky Liverpool defence. We believe this could be a tough night for the Reds and there could even be a possibility that the tie might get over in the first leg itself. 

Score Prediction: PSG 3–0 Liverpool