Can Aston Villa’s revival lead them to top four in the Premier League?

From a sluggish start to the season to playing like title challengers, Aston Villa’s turnaround has been phenomenal. Not having strengthened the team in the summer due to financial restrictions, Aston Villa came into the new season with only two major signings in Evan Guessand and Marco Bizot. The other potential big signings (Jadon Sancho, Victor Lindelof and Harvey Elliott) have barely featured for them as they were low-risk transfer moves completed due to lack of funds. 

In the initial part of the season, Aston Villa seemed considerably off the pace with only three points from their first five games, languishing in 18th place in the league table. However, the Villans have reversed their fortunes in fine fashion, winning nine of their last 10 games in the league, also winning their last 13 games out of 15 in all competitions.  As a result, Villa is currently placed third, three points off the top in the Premier League and third in the Europa League table as well, level on points with leaders Olympique Lyonnais,  separated by goal difference. 

Even if we consider the marginal point-gap from the league leaders, Aston Villa cannot be considered as title challengers just yet. Still a long way to go in the league and playing league games with Thursday night football in the Europa League, especially with the squad depth they possess, it would be a tall order for Unai Emery’s men to win the league title. They do have a genuine shot in Europe though as they are one of the strongest contenders in the Europa League. 

Here we will analyse how they have managed the turnaround and whether Villa can make top four after missing out narrowly last season – 

Head coach staying true to his tactics 

Since taking up the Aston Villa job in 2022, Unai Emery has truly transformed Aston Villa. Without spending a lot of money on new signings, the Spanish head coach has been immense, turning them into a lethal force. His best moment with Villa came at the end of the 2023/24 season when his team marked a return to the UEFA Champions League after a hiatus of four decades. Their Champions League campaign in the 2024/25 season was quite impressive as well as they managed to reach the quarter-finals stage where they lost the tie over two legs against eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain but went out fighting, even defeating PSG at home. 

The start of the 2025/26 season was somewhat underwhelming and it felt like the intensity of the previous season’s schedule had affected the manager and his squad. Villa failed to win a single game from their first five but even after massive criticism from ex-players and pundits, Unai Emery stuck to his guns. It’s quite easy to be influenced by the outside noise and engage in self-doubt but Emery did none of that. He continued to set up his team in the same way with minor tactical tweaks and his players repaid the faith on the pitch. From having difficulty in finding the net in the first five games (2 goals with 3.9 xG and 4 big chances created) to scoring freely in their last five games (12 goals with 8.8 xG and 10 big chances created), the improvement has been absolutely incredible. Emery’s ability to utilise and get the absolute best out of players like Ollie Watkins, John McGinn, Morgan Rogers, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa and Youri Tielemans has been another reason for the club’s transformation over the past few seasons. With their main-man Ollie Watkins not yet firing, Villa hasn’t even hit top gear and once he does, they could become even more dangerous. For the time being, the head coach needs to be given a lot of credit for the change in their fortunes without experimenting too much with his tactics or the playing eleven.  

Performing as a team with key players returning to form 

A coach can only do so much in terms of providing tactical insight and training his players a certain way but if the players don’t buy into his approach and deliver the right results, it counts for nothing. A few of the Aston Villa players that had been instrumental in their performances last season had been underperforming in the early part of the season. Youri Tielemans, Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins were all misfiring and looking sluggish. However, over the past month or so, they have shown glimpses of form, impacting the results positively. Additionally, other players have chipped in with vital goals which has also helped the team. 

Watkins has been particularly underwhelming with a return of only three goals from 16 appearances this season which is really poor from his usually high standards. Also, being their main-man up top, Aston Villa relies heavily on him for goal contributions. Youri Tielemans and Morgan Rogers have also been their top attacking players over the past season. Rogers marked his second season in the top-flight with 18 goals/assists (G/A) in 37 Premier League games while Tielemans also returned decent numbers of 10 G/A in 36 league games last season. While Rogers has got going with 8 G/A in 16 appearances, the other two had been struggling until recent weeks. Both Tielemans and Watkins have marked a return to form with top performances in the last few games which is a great positive for Unai Emery. 

Alternatively, when the big players aren’t performing, it’s an opportunity for the others in the team to step up and players like Matty Cash, Emiliano Buendia, Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana have done that, contributing with match-winning goals in hard-fought games.

We have also seen over the years that playing as a collective rather than relying on individual brilliance leads to sustained success in football and if Aston Villa continue to combine both, they could be unstoppable this season. 

Strong home record

Villa Park has been an absolute fortress for Aston Villa over the past few seasons. It’s never easy for opposition teams to go and win at Villa Park. For context, playing against the traditional ‘Top 6’, Aston Villa only lost to Arsenal at home last season. Aston Villa had 11 wins, seven draws and only one loss in 19 home games in the 2024/25 Premier League season. This season too the trend has continued as they have already defeated Manchester City and Arsenal at home and barring the defeat to Crystal Palace, Aston Villa hasn’t lost to anyone at Villa Park. Aston Villa have played eight home games this season with six wins, a loss and a draw so far. 

For a team to perform well over the course of a season, getting wins in away games is more difficult and thus, a team’s home form becomes critical. If a team can maintain a good home record, there is a strong possibility for them to finish at the higher end of the table. 

This is something Aston Villa has achieved over the past few seasons and they have ensured that the visiting teams and coaches treat this away fixture with respect rather than disdain.  

Conclusion 

Without a doubt, Aston Villa has hit a purple patch and they would like to continue this winning streak as much as possible. There have been talks in the media about them being genuine title contenders after the last gasp win against Arsenal but I don’t believe Aston Villa are ready for a title charge yet. There is no doubt that they are a quality side with some really top players but Villa doesn’t have the kind of squad that can challenge for the title over a 38-game season along with playing midweek in the Europa League. Injuries are inevitable with the rigorous schedule these players have to go through, even Unai Emery knows winning the title will be a miraculous feat with limited squad options. 

Having said that, Villa do have a decent chance to qualify for top four places and ensure Champions League qualification for next season but they would also need a few reinforcements in the January window. Barring Arsenal and Manchester City, other top teams have been inconsistent. Liverpool has been struck by transition and poor form, Chelsea has been hit by injuries and inconsistency, Man United and Spurs haven’t been great either.

Hence, top four could be a realistic goal for Aston Villa alongside success in the Europa League. Though there are a few other factors that need to favour them in order to ensure Champions League qualification. If Aston Villa are able to sustain their positive momentum, add vital reinforcements in the transfer window, avoid fatigue and injuries to key players, they could definitely be there or thereabouts at the end of the season.