Can Manchester City qualify for UEFA Champions League without Erling Haaland?

Erling Haaland has been Manchester City’s goalscoring sensation since his arrival from Borussia Dortmund in the 2022/23 season. The Norwegian striker has been in remarkable form ever since, tormenting defenders across all competitions and finding the back of the net with astonishing consistency.

This season, Haaland’s importance to the team has become even more evident as City have struggled with contributions from other players. The 24-year-old has shouldered the responsibility of keeping his side firmly in the race for a top-five finish—the Premier League has an extra Champions League qualification spot for this season.

Even in a poor season by his usual high standards, Haaland has been City’s saviour more than once and is second only to Mohamed Salah in the league for most goals scored. In 28 PL games this season, he has bagged 21 goals for the Cityzens, doing the bulk of the scoring as the likes of Phil Foden, Jérémy Doku, and Savinho have failed to make significant contributions.

Out of contention for both the Premier League and Champions League titles, City’s only realistic shot at silverware this season remains the FA Cup. As a result, they fielded a full-strength team in their FA Cup quarter-final clash against Bournemouth.

However, despite securing a 2-1 win and progressing to the semis, the victory was overshadowed by an injury to Haaland. The striker was forced off the pitch with an ankle problem, and the latest update from the club suggests he may be sidelined for up to seven weeks.

The injury to their star performer has come at a very unfortunate moment for City, with Chelsea, Newcastle United, and Aston Villa all looking to grab a Champions League spot in the league table. City are currently fifth—behind Chelsea with a one-point gap. The Magpies are a point behind them, having played a game less, while Villa are seventh, two points behind Newcastle. 

City’s failure to make significant signings last summer has proven costly this season as they have struggled to replicate the form that saw them dominate in previous seasons. With an ageing squad and several under-performing players, they have struggled to maintain their high standards.

In the January transfer window, City made a move to address their offensive struggles by signing Omar Marmoush from Eintracht Frankfurt. The Egyptian forward was the in-form forward in the Bundesliga during the first half of the season and has continued looking deadly in front of goal at his new club.

City’s upcoming fixtures appear manageable, and with Marmoush’s addition to the squad, there is hope that they can end the season well. Playing without Haaland against Leicester City in Gameweek 30, the hosts were able to secure a comfortable 2-0 victory, and even though they played out a 0-0 draw in the Manchester derby as Marmoush caused United all sorts of trouble with his pace and power, a top-five finish looks well within their reach.

Much will depend on how their direct rivals for the season—Newcastle, Aston Villa, and Chelsea—perform in the last eight fixtures. Pep Guardiola’s men may be more than capable of turning things around for themselves, but their success is also going to hinge on results they cannot control.

While Aston Villa’s attention is split given their ongoing Champions League campaign, Newcastle’s topsy-turvy form hasn’t helped them. Chelsea, on the other hand, have been struggling with their own injury and consistency issues. So, not being in the Champions League may actually work in City’s favour in this situation, reducing distraction and keeping their schedule comparatively light.

With the wealth of experience and quality at Guardiola’s disposal, Man City are well-positioned to secure a top-five finish this term. Even without Haaland, they are more than capable of making the most of what has been an underwhelming season.

However, the real test for the Sky Blues will come next season. With the league becoming increasingly competitive, and the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal strengthening their squads, it remains to be seen whether City will be able to bounce back and challenge for the league title once again.