It’s down to four teams in this season’s UEFA Champions League, and we’re set to have new winners, with Real Madrid knocked out in the last round courtesy of Arsenal.
Compared to the Gunners, who were comprehensively the better side over two legs, the other three semi-finalists had trickier outings. Paris Saint-Germain narrowly scraped past Aston Villa, who almost managed a historic comeback at home, while Barcelona lost the second leg at the Signal Iduna Park and were sweating towards the end. Inter Milan, composed on most days, also had a nervy end to their tie against Bayer Munich.
That said, what’s evident is that all four teams are closely matched, and it’s quite difficult to pick a clear favourite for the trophy. With that in mind, here we present out preview and predictions for all the semi-final match-ups.
Arsenal FC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC
Despite everything that has gone wrong for Mikel Arteta this season in terms of injuries, red cards, and struggles in front of goal, his young and relatively inexperienced team managed to produce two of the greatest performances in recent Arsenal history to knock out holders Real Madrid with a dominating 5-1 aggregate win.
Despite not having an out-and-out striker and missing their best centre-back, Arsenal have been one of the best sides in the competition this season. They finished third in the league phase before comfortably beating PSV Eindhoven and Real Madrid in the knockout rounds. They are the second highest goalscorers out of the four remaining teams and have also been one of the best defensive sides—second only to Inter.
PSG, on the other side, have been the in-form team in the tournament since the turn of the year. However, Luis Enrique’s men were dealt a huge scare at Villa Park as complacency nearly cost them the tie. Although they’re an impressive bunch for their age, the lack of leadership was evident on the pitch last time out.
With the league already wrapped up and Stade de Reims awaiting them in the Coupe de France final, PSG are on course for the treble. The likes of Achraf Hakimi, João Neves, Vitinha, Nuno Mendes, Bradley Barcola, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have all played their part, though for most part it has been Ousmane Dembélé’s show this season. After some disciplinary issues plagued his game time early in the season, the Frenchman has been on fire since the turn of the year and is currently sitting on 32 G/A in 38 appearances across all competitions.
Arsenal and PSG played each other during the league phase. On that day, the Gunners had come out on top 2-0 at the Emirates. However, the Parisians have long since shifted gears. Their forward line will pose more questions to the Arsenal defence than what Real Madrid could muster, though it will still be very difficult for Luis Enrique’s men to break it down.
Arsenal, on the other hand, have been scoring goals from both open play and set pieces frequently, while PSG have been shipping a few too many goals this season. Thus, for this encounter, we give the edge to Arsenal, who are looking to reach their first Champions League final since 2006.
Prediction: Arsenal advance 3-2 on aggregate
FC Barcelona vs FC Internazionale Milano
Just like PSG, both Barcelona and Inter Milan are on course for a historic treble. But unlike the French side, both Barça and Inter are far from comfortable in their respective leagues, with Hansi Flick’s side leading LaLiga by four points and Simone Inzaghi’s Nerazzurri level on top of the Serie A table with Napoli with five games to go (both of the two league games in which they faced each other ended 1-1, so a one-off game will be played if they are level on points come the end of the season).
Unlike Arsenal and PSG, Barça and Inter can afford to take their foot off the pedal in the league for the rest of the season. While this is considered good in many people’s eyes, there is also the risk of fatigue and injuries crippling these teams. Inter, in that regard, look closer to the edge than the other three sides. Despite their exceptional consistency over the last few years, fatigue has started to set in among the ageing Inter players.
Compared to the other three teams, whose starting XIs average around 25 years of age, the Inter side that played the second leg against Bayern Munich averaged 31.1 years—significantly older than Barcelona’s 25.7. Inter’s game plan against Bayern was to sit back and counter; it won’t be any different when they face off against Barcelona.
Barça have been arguably the most potent side in the Champions League this season. They prefer a free-flowing style of football in contrast to Inter’s pragmatic approach. Moreover, Hansi Flick’s team will be able to create a lot more chances than what Bayern conjured over two legs and thus will be more likely to score.
Despite both Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martínez having an excellent season, it’s hard to see Inter creating enough chances to outscore Barcelona over two legs. Thus, we back the Blaugrana to make the UCL final for the first time since 2015—when they secured the treble.
Prediction: Barcelona advance 4-2 on aggregate
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