Day 11 of UEFA Euro 2024 will see teams from both Group B and Group D take the field one last time to decide which teams alongside Spain will progress to the Round of 16.
So, without further ado, let’s take a look at what Day 11 has in store for us.
La Roja swept aside reigning champions Italy 1-0 to book their place in the knockout stages, while Sylvinho’s side currently sit third courtesy of a dramatic late comeback in a 2-2 draw with Croatia.
The result means Sylvinho’s third-placed side remain in with a chance of a first-ever knockout appearance at a major tournament. But such scenarios firstly hinge on the Red and Blacks doing what neither Croatia nor Italy have been able to do at the current tournaments so far—take a point off or even score against Spain—but Luis de la Fuente’s side could be forgiven for letting their guard down slightly here.
With six points accrued, four goals scored, and zero conceded, Spain have more than underlined their status as a serious contender for continental glory—even if they did fly slightly under the radar before the tournament began—having made a mockery of the so-called group of death thus far.
In head-to-head battles, Spain definitely hold the upper hand, winning all eight of their previous men’s internationals. Ironically, Albania’s heaviest defeat in men’s international football came against Spain in 1990 during the Euro Qualifiers. Moreover, on the one previous occasion that Spain won each of their opening three Euros matches, they ended up going all the way in 2008.
Albania have no fewer than five players walking a suspension tightrope—Armando Broja, Klaus Gjasula, Elseid Hysaj, Arber Hoxha. and Mirlind Daku would miss any potential last-16 tie if they are booked.
On the other hand, De la Fuente has confirmed that changes are in the offing for Monday’s game with top spot assured. Arsenal FC– and FC Barcelona–linked Martín Zubimendi is surely first in line to replace Rodri, who is one yellow card away from a suspension, while the likes of Mikel Oyarzabal, Mikel Merino, Ferran Torres, Alejandro Grimaldo, Jesús Navas and potentially even David Raya could be in line for a start against Albania on Tuesday.
Albania
Form (all competitions, most recent first): D-L-W-W-L
Most recent result: Croatia 2-2 Albania, Euro 2024 Group B
European Qualifying: Finished 1st in Group E with 15 points
Spain
Form (all competitions, most recent first): W-W-W-W-D
Most recent result: Spain 1-0 Italy, Euro 2024 Group B
European Qualifying: Finished top of Group A with 21 points
Spain have a ridiculously deep squad which could entice De la Fuente to make some changes and give opportunities to their back-up players to get crucial minutes under their legs.
Sylvinho’s side, on the other hand, have put in performances to be proud of against Italy and Croatia, but even a second-string Spanish team—packed with players with points to prove—should prove too strong as Albania prepare to bow out at the first hurdle and concede multiple goals to Spain for the tenth match running.
Albania 0-3 Spain
Goalkeeper: Thomas Strakosha
Defenders: Alejandro Grimaldo, Nacho Fernández, Jesús Navas
Midfielders: Qazim Laci, Nedim Bajrami, Fermín López, Dani Olmo
Forwards: Rey Manaj, Ferran Torres, Mikel Oyarzabal
Captain: Ferran Torres
Vice-captain: Mikel Oyarzabal
Despite suffering a serious setback on Wednesday, when they conceded a last-gasp goal against Albania to sit on just one point after two Group B fixtures, Croatia can still progress to the knockout rounds of another European Championship.
They will certainly go through to the last 16 if they beat Italy on Monday and Albania are unable to upset Spain—should the Albanians also win, the pair would then be split by means of goal difference. However, a defeat will hand the World Cup bronze medallists an early exit—or a draw and Albania avoiding defeat.
Going by historical evidence, since gaining independence in the 1990s, Croatia are unbeaten in eight games against their Italian counterparts.
Luciano Spalletti’s men, on the other hand, have plenty to prove after attempting their fewest shots in a Euros game to date and looking shaky at the back. Italy have never lost consecutive matches at the Euros, but their final group fixture seems far from straightforward.
Avoiding defeat to Croatia is a minimum requirement, because if Italy lose and Albania somehow shock the already-qualified Spain, the Azzurri‘s title defence would come crashing to a halt.
All 25 remaining Croatian players trained at the weekend (Torino forward Nikola Vlašic recently departed the camp due to injury). Bruno Petkovic could make way for Ante Budimir up front, while former Inter midfielder Marcelo Brozovic may be dropped for fresh legs in the form of 21-year-old Luka Sucic, having failed to perform thus far.
Italy are also expected to shake up their side on Tuesday following sub-par displays by many of their players. Matteo Darmian, Bryan Cristante, and Mateo Retegui are all viable alternatives, while young midfielder Nicolò Fagioli is also in contention despite spending most of last season side-lined with a betting ban.
Spalletti’s squad was decimated by injury before the tournament kicked off, and with Federico Dimarco’s presence now in doubt due to a bruised calf, the versatile Darmian may be required to deputise.
Croatia
Form (all competitions, most recent first): D-L-W-W-W
Most recent result: Croatia 2-2 Albania, Euro 2024 Group B
European Qualifying: Finished 2nd in Group D with 16 points
Italy
Form (all competitions, most recent first): L-W- W-D-W
Most recent result: Spain 1-0 Italy, Euro 2024 Group B
European Qualifying: Finished 2nd in Group C with 14 points.
The onus is on Croatia to come out and attack a fragile Italian defence, so the Azzurri may concentrate on absorbing some pressure and then trying to strike on the break.
Neither side boast a clinical finisher, so a low-scoring draw could be the final outcome, which would send Italy through and their Croatian counterparts packing.
Croatia 0-0 Italy
Goalkeeper: Dominik Livakovic
Defenders: Alessandro Bastoni, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Josip Šutalo, Andrea Cambiaso
Midfielders: Nicolò Barella, Davide Frattesi, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic
Forwards: Federico Chiesa
Captain: Giovanni Di Lorenzo
Vice-captain: Alessandro Bastoni
France are yet to truly show their true potential in Germany, with their narrow 1-0 victory against Austria and their 0-0 draw against the Netherlands leading some to question their credentials as possible Euro 2024 winners.
If France avoid defeat against Poland or if Austria do not beat the Netherlands, then they will finish in the top two and go through to the Round of 16. France will top the group if they win and the Netherlands do not, but if Les Bleus and the Dutch both win or both draw, they will be split for first and second place by goal difference, then goals scored, then disciplinary points, and then the European Qualifier rankings, in which France rank higher.
As for Poland, they finished fourth in Group D having lost their opening two games against the Netherlands and then Austria. Although the Eagles can still finish level on points with Austria, they cannot surpass them because Austria have a superior head-to-head record given their 3-1 victory in the last game, and this supersedes factors such as overall goal difference.
Moreover, since 1986 they have only managed to reach the quarter-finals of either the Euros or the World Cup once, with that being at the 2016 European Championship in France.
As for the Euros themselves, though Poland have qualified for the last five tournaments they have exited at the group stage on four of these occasions.
Despite sitting out against the Netherlands on Friday, Real Madrid CF–bound Kylian Mbappé is likely to return to the starting XI after breaking his nose against Austria. Although his place in the team will be a welcome boost, it does mean that Didier Deschamps will have a selection dilemma, likely having to choose between Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni in order to accommodate Mbappé in the team.
As for Poland, they do have concerns about centre-back Bartosz Salamon due to an ankle injury that forced him to miss his side’s defeat to Austria. Robert Lewandowski will almost certainly come back into the starting line-up considering that this could be his final game at a major international tournament.
France
Form (all competitions, most recent first): D-W-D-W-W
Most recent result: Netherlands 0-0 France, Euro 2024 Group D
European Qualifying: Finished 1st in Group B with 22 points
Poland
Form (all competitions, most recent first): L-L-W-W-D
Most recent result: Poland 1-3 Austria, Euro 2024 Group D
European Qualifying: Finished 3rd in Group E with 11 points
France’s performances have been below par at Euro 2024 so far, but they do boast a significant quality advantage over Poland. Additionally, they come into Tuesday’s clash as clear favourites considering the Eagles are likely to be dejected given their elimination from the competition.
France 2-0 Poland
Goalkeeper: Wojciech Szczesny
Defenders: Jules Koundé, Theo Hernández, Jakub Kiwior
Midfielders: N’Golo Kanté, Adrian Rabiot, Antoine Griezmann, Ousmané Dembélé, Piotr Zielinski
Forwards: Kylian Mbappé, Robert Lewandowski
Captain: Kylian Mbappé
Vice-captain: Ousmané Dembélé
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Aiming to reach the knockout rounds for an eighth time in their last nine Euro appearances, the Netherlands took one step closer to their primary goal by holding tournament favourites France to a 0-0 draw.
Since the 2014 World Cup, the Netherlands are unbeaten in group matches at major tournaments, winning nine of 11 and scoring in each game except their goalless encounter with France. During that same streak, Austria were beaten 2-0 at Euro 2020, when Memphis Depay and Denzel Dumfries were both on target at the Johan Cruijff Arena. Moreover, Austria have lost their last seven matches against the Netherlands—their longest ongoing sequence against a single opponent.
Austria will actually win Group D if they take maximum points and France do not, but should they draw and Les Bleus lose, the Austrians will instead finish third on head-to-head record.
One point would surely be enough to progress as one of the best third-place teams in any case, helping Ralf Rangnick’s team reach the European Championship knockout rounds for the second consecutive edition.
Ronald Koeman should have a full squad at his disposal for the Netherlands’ final group fixture, as AFC Ajax striker Brian Brobbey was back on the bench for the France game after a hamstring injury. Both Joey Veerman and his clubmate Jerdy Schouten are one booking away from suspension, which may be a minor factor in team selection, potentially opening the door for Ryan Gravenberch or Georginio Wijnaldum.
Up front, Wout Weghorst will be hoping to get a game ahead of Memphis Depay, who is just five goals shy of equalling Robin van Persie’s record total for the Oranje.
Meanwhile, Rangnick tinkered with his starting XI ahead of the victory over Poland, but it is unlikely he’ll tinker much with a winning formula.
Netherlands
Form (all competitions, most recent first): D-W-W-W-L
Most recent result: Netherlands 0-0 France, Euro 2024 Group D
European Qualifying: Finished 2nd in Group B, with 18 points.
Austria
Form (all competitions, most recent first): W-L-D-W-W
Most recent result: Poland 1-3 Austria, Euro 2024 Group D
European Qualifying: Finished 2nd in Group F, with 19 points.
Both teams are well-placed to secure qualification. However, Austria’s need for victory is greater, so they may need to force the issue with their high-intensity style.
Without a clinical finisher, the Netherlands may not fully capitalise on any gaps at the back, but a draw might well send both teams through to the last 16.
Netherlands 1-1 Austria
Goalkeeper: Bart Verbruggen
Defenders: Nathan Aké, Denzel Dumfries, Phillip Mwene, Stefan Posch
Midfielders: Marcel Sabitzer, Cristoph Baumgartner, Xavier Simons, Nicolas Seiwald
Forwards: Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay
Captain: Cody Gakpo
Vice-captain: Christoph Baumgartner
Also read: UEFA Euro 2024 Sponsors
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