F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2024: Preview and Predictions

After a two-week gap, Formula One is back as we head to Baku for the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix with multiple narrative beats ahead of us.

With championship struggles, new contenders, and some final moves in the driver market, there’s a lot happening as the F1 action reaches Baku.

Ahead of the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, here are our preview and predictions.

Multiple challengers

It’s been six races since the reigning world champion, Max Verstappen, stood on the top step of the podium, with his lead in the Drivers’ Standings being cut down every weekend by Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc.

The Constructors’ Standings, meanwhile, have McLaren about to take the lead from Red Bull very soon, the former just a couple of points behind the latter and having regularly been out-scoring Verstappen and Sergio Pérez for the last few weekends. Red Bull’s struggles have been put to light, and the Austrian team need to bring major upgrades to their car soon if they want to remain at the front of the grid.

With Red Bull struggling, McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes have made significant movement up the field to cut down their lead. McLaren have easily had the best car of the season for the most part, and now it looks like they will be locking in their first Constructors’ championship since 1998.

Norris has brought down Verstappen’s championship lead to a mere 62 points, which should have been even lower had he not fudged multiple opportunities (he has taken three poles since Verstappen’s last win but won only one of those races). In that period, Lewis Hamilton has given Mercedes two wins, while Oscar Piastri and Charles Leclerc have one win each.

Moving into the final half of the season, McLaren are the clear favourites to be on the top step of the podium for the majority of the races. They hold the advantage heading to Baku, but writing Red Bull out completely isn’t a smart move either. Expect the two to be in the mix once again. 

Pole Position Prediction: Lando Norris
Race Winner Prediction: Lando Norris

Time to step up

Baku has been a happy-hunting ground for Pérez, who has won two of the six races held here. The Mexican remains the only repeat race winner at Baku, with no other driver having been able to manage the feat yet. 

Like Pérez, Red Bull are the most successful team in Baku, having won four times (Pérez twice and Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo once each). They need Pérez to step up more than ever in order to hold on to their Constructors’ position. Pérez, though, is not in the best of form, having not been on the podium since the Chinese Grand Prix and yet to win a race this season. His poor form is one of the main factors behind Red Bull losing their footing in the Constructors’ championship.

Both Pérez and Red Bull need a strong showing in Baku, and there is no better time or place for Pérez to get back on the podium—at one of his favourite destinations. 

Strong history

Baku has also been kind to Aston Martin, who have had strong performances here in the past and will be looking for more of the same in an attempt to revitalise their season. 

The British outfit had a stunning start to the 2023 season with multiple podiums, but it’s been a polar opposite this time round as they are yet to get on the podium. While Sebastian Vettel gave them a brilliant P2 finish back in 2021, and Lance Stroll was on the podium in 2017, Fernando Alonso is yet to get on the podium in Baku. 

Street tracks have always been a strong suit for Aston Martin, though. As they lie in fifth place, more than 200 points behind Mercedes in fourth, the side from Silverstone can do with a strong haul of points this weekend. At a street track where they have been historically strong, look out for Aston Martin. 

Dark Horses: Aston Martin

Also read: Formula One Sponsors 2024

Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2024: Race Details

Circuit: Baku City Circuit
Venue: Azadliq Square, Baku, Azerbaijan
Practice Session 1 time: 15:00, September 13
Practice Session 2 time: 18:30, September 13
Qualifying time: 19:30, September 14
Main race time: 16:30, September 15
Where to watch: F1 TV Pro / FanCode