Formula One 2024: Who has the upper hand heading into the final three races?

After a sustained period of dominance by McLaren, two back-to-back Ferrari wins, and an imperious drive by Max Verstappen under treacherous conditions in Brazil, the 2024 Formula One Constructors’ Championship is set for a three-way climax towards the very end. 

So, let’s take stock. With just three more Grands Prix, one Sprint, and one fastest lap point in each Grand Prix left to play for, there are 140 points left to dole out to teams. 

At the time of writing, the top three in the Constructors’ Standings are:

#1 | McLaren | 593 Points
#2 | Ferrari | 557 Points 
#3 | Red Bull | 544 Points

McLaren, certainly, have the upper hand, but their margin for error is slim. A solid strategy focused on minimising risks and consistent scoring by both their drivers should be enough for them to secure the championship. However, things rarely turn out to be that straightforward. 

Luckily, this year’s McLaren car, the MCL38, has been one of the most track-versatile and reliable units on the grid. The McLaren drivers, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, have managed to carve out five wins and 19 podium finishes between them this year, so aggression is only necessary if either Ferrari or Red Bull make significant gains. Notably, however, both of them are looking to bring in upgraded parts for the final leg of the season. 

While McLaren have a faster car than Red Bull, the reigning champion, Max Verstappen, has been the one driving the latter’s unpredictable RB20, and with the tracks at both Las Vegas and the season-finale event of Abu Dhabi suiting Red Bull over pure race pace, the Dutchman is set to remain a persistent thorn in McLaren’s side. 

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However, the bigger problem for both Norris and Piastri is the frightening pace at which Ferrari have closed the gap to both McLaren and Red Bull. On paper, the Scuderia have a better-suited car for Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi, and the fact they are likely to introduce a new frontwing will give both McLaren and Red Bull sleepless nights until the cars hit the Lusail track in Qatar. 

For all of Ferrari’s good work in bringing the SF-24 to title-challenging levels, however, it cannot be disputed that the car has always lacked performance in high-speed corners. The Lusail track is a high-speed circuit, which particularly aids McLaren. Thus, a new frontwing will help in narrowing the playing field between the two old rivals. 

With just 36 points separating McLaren and Ferrari, and Red Bull sitting only 13 points behind, Ferrari look the most well-placed team and will be ready to pounce should either McLaren or Red Bull falter in the last three races.