Can India win the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy?

Except for actually going all the way, India have a great record in ICC tournaments since 2013. India progressed to the semi-final or final of an ICC tournament more times than any other country in the last decade. However, going past the final hurdle has always been India’s Achilles heel. 

For a team that has done exceedingly well during the league stages of every ICC tournament, their world comes down crashing as the knockouts take centrestage. It’s those 30-40 minutes of bad cricket that always takes the game away from India. 

Yuvraj Singh and Virat Kohli getting tied down by Nuwan Kulasekara and Lasith Malinga during the death overs in the final of the 2014 ICC T20 World Cup; Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and Shikhar Dhawan getting out in the space of five overs against Australia in the 2015 ICC ODI World Cup semi-final; Mohammad Amir running through the Indian top order in the 2017 Champions Trophy final; Matt Henry repeating the same feat in the 2019 ODI World Cup semi-final; and the 2023 ODI World Cup final, the list goes on. 

Going into the ninth edition of the ICC Champions Trophy, two-times champions India will look to recreate the magic of 2013, having lost in its last edition against Pakistan in the final. But it won’t be an easy task with many key players either out of form or coming back from injury. 

Barring Yashasvi Jaiswal, Rishabh Pant, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar and Arshdeep Singh, this is the same squad that played in the 2023 ODI World Cup. However, eight of these fifteen lifted the ICC T20 World Cup in the Caribbeans last summer, finally getting over the line after a decade-long sequence of heartbreaks in ICC tournaments. 

If India make it to the final of the Champions Trophy, they’ll be playing all five matches in the Dubai International Cricket Stadium. Thus, understanding the conditions will be key for the Men In Blue. 

Looking at the ongoing International League T20, the pitches in the Dubai International Cricket Stadium initially had a grass covering and assisted the seamers, however, in recent matches, spinners have come into the fold. 

So, whether India start with four seamers (including Hardik Pandya), and two spinners in Kuldeep Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja, or drop one seamer to bring in either a Washington Sundar or Axar Patel, will depend entirely on the surface they’ll be playing at. 

Moreover, the trio of Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammad Shami and Arshdeep Singh will keep any opposition batter on their feet. Looking at India’s overall bowling line-up, it is definitely one of the best in the tournament, however, it is their batting department that has been misfiring lately. 

Since winning 10 consecutive ODI matches during the 2023 CWC, India has not won an ODI since their semi-final win against New Zealand at the Wankhede Stadium. After losing the final against Australia, India lost their only ODI series in 2024 against Sri Lanka 2-0 (3), having tied the first ODI at the R Premadasa Stadium. 

In all four games, India’s Achilles heel was the inability of their top and middle-order batters to bat through the innings. Besides, the series against Sri Lanka exposed the Indian batters’ vulnerability against spin bowling. 

Furthermore, not many in the current squad are in any sort of decent form. The captain Rohit Sharma has been under immense pressure due to his poor showings against New Zealand and Australia. Shubman Gill, too, is under the scanner after a poor tour of Australia. Virat Kohli has been struggling with his off-stump line and nicking edges off to the slip cordon time and again. 

The same goes for India’s middle-order. Shreyas Iyer, following a successful Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy, has gone off the boil recently in the domestic circuit. Rishabh Pant is also not in the best of forms while KL Rahul was the only Indian batter to look assured of his technique and got some runs under his belt recently. 

This is the first time in a very long time that India will be going into an ICC tournament with so many batters out of form. And thus, it is safe to say that India are not one of the favourites to win the tournament. 

Placed in a comparatively easier group alongside Pakistan, Bangladesh and New Zealand – based on the strengths of their bowling department – India should have enough to reach the knockout stages. However, from thereon, it could be anybody’s game as evident from past tournaments. 

For India to win this tournament, they will need a lot of their out-of-form key players to get their act together and fast, and given that the team is filled with match winners, every match they’ll have to find someone to put their hand up and take the team home. 

Also read: ICC Champions Trophy 2025 Preview and Predictions