UCL 2025/26: Semi-finals first leg previews and predictions

The 2025/26 UEFA Champions league is nearing its conclusion, and we have this year’s final four. With four elite teams, one each from Spain, England, France, and Germany, left in the competition, it’s an exciting match-up on both ends of the draw. 

Here, we present our previews and predictions for both first-leg encounters of the semi-final stage of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich

This is going to be a box-office encounter between arguably two of Europe’s best teams. Bayern Munich and PSG met in the league phase once at the Parc des Princes earlier this season, where the Bavarians got the better of Les Parisiens.

Both teams have a plethora of attacking talent and play really attractive brands of football. However, they both need to watch out for defensive vulnerabilities, as their backlines have been found wanting on a couple of occasions this season. 

What will favour Bayern Munich is that they do not have the distraction of the league anymore. They have already been crowned Bundesliga champions, while PSG still haven’t secured the Ligue 1 title yet and could be overtaken by second-placed Lens, whom they also face soon. If we look at their recent form, PSG have four wins and a loss from their last five league encounters. Their recent result was a 3–0 away win against Angers.

PSG defeated Liverpool convincingly over two legs in the Champions League quarter-finals, winning by a scoreline of 4–0 on aggregate. The defending champions were exceptional at home, dominating the game from start to finish, unlucky not to score more. They took a 2–0 lead to Anfield, and even though Liverpool dominated the second leg for a large part, they lacked finishing and PSG defended superbly. The French champions then punished the Reds for their lack of enterprise, scoring two quick goals on the counter, winning 2–0 on the night and finishing the tie emphatically.

However, standing in their way in the semi-finals are the team with arguably the most dangerous front three in all of Europe. Bayern Munich’s attacking trio, comprising Luis Díaz, Harry Kane, and Michael Olise, has been virtually unstoppable. Kane has been particularly lethal, having scored more than 50 goals in all competitions this season.

Bayern have won all five of their last five league encounters, with their most recent one being a seven-goal thriller against Mainz, where they came back from a three-goal deficit to win the game in superb fashion. Die Roten also defeated 15-time champions Real Madrid in the UCL quarter-finals in an incredible 180 minutes over two legs. Bayern also have an edge in terms of playing the second leg at home, where they have lost only one game all season. 

The knockout stages have brought out the best in this PSG side. They annihilated Chelsea in the round of 16 and then Liverpool in the quarter-finals, so it’s not going to be easy for the German champions. PSG also possess a massive attacking threat in the form of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué, and Ousmane Dembélé, who have performed well throughout this UCL campaign.

While PSG won their first continental trophy last season, six-time champions Bayern Munich haven’t won the Champions League since 2020 and have only made one semi-final appearance since then. We are all aware that the Bundesliga is their bread and butter, and they win it without much opposition almost every season, but the Champions League is where they need to prove their dominance.

Coming to key injury problems, PSG’s midfield maestro Vitinha could be doubtful for this big match-up as he sustained a heel injury and is currently training individually. Apart from him, Quentin Ndjantou will also be unavailable. Bayern, meanwhile, have quite a few injury issues, with Serge Gnabry, Tom Bischof, Cassiano Kiala, Raphaël Guerreiro, Lennart Karl, Sven Ulreich, Wisdom Mike, and David Santos all doubtful for this game. In addition, head coach Vincent Kompany has been suspended and will be in the stands.

PSG’s chances will definitely be affected if Vitinha doesn’t start, as he is one of their most important players given how he controls the tempo of the game. Fabián Ruiz is back, though, which is a huge positive for them, while Warren Zaïre-Emery has also been excellent in the middle of the park.

As for Bayern, they won’t hold back in Paris and will be full of confidence going into this fixture. They have already beaten PSG away from home in the league phase. This is a mouth-watering tie between two of the most exciting teams this season, and there isn’t much to choose from, barring the fact that Bayern possess a more clinical finisher in Kane, while PSG players do miss quite a lot of chances. Having said that, both teams are more or less equally matched, and that’s why we believe this could be an end-to-end first-leg encounter that may finish in a high-scoring draw.

Score Prediction: PSG 2–2 Bayern

Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal

Two teams still in pursuit of their first-ever Champions League trophy will battle at Metropolitano on Wednesday night, as Atlético Madrid play host to Arsenal for the first leg of the semi-final.

The Spanish giants are gearing up for their seventh European Cup/Champions League semi-final, their first since the 2016/17 campaign, after edging past domestic rivals Barcelona 3–2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.

Long regarded as a pragmatic side under head coach Diego Simeone, Atleti have redefined their identity on the continental stage this term, having already recorded their highest-ever goal tally in Europe’s premier competition with 34 goals, eclipsing their previous best from the 2013/14 campaign (26).

The Rojiblancos have found the net in each of their last 12 matches across all competitions, most recently winning 3–2 at home against Athletic Club in LaLiga on Saturday to end a four-game losing run in the top flight and consolidate their place in the top four.

A tricky test against Arsenal awaits Atleti, who suffered a heavy 4–0 defeat at the Emirates in the league phase earlier this season. Simeone’s men have also won just two of their last 12 matches against English teams in UEFA competitions (two draws and eight defeats), while they have a mixed record overall in Champions League semi-finals (three wins and three defeats).

However, Atleti have prevailed in 11 of their last 15 European two-legged ties against English opposition, including all three semi-finals, while they head into Wednesday’s contest in the Spanish capital having lost only two of their last 18 meetings with English teams in Madrid (nine wins and seven draws), so there is reason for them to be optimistic of success this time around.

As for their opponents, for the first time in their history, Arsenal have reached the Champions League semi-finals for a second year running, and only the fourth time overall, after edging past Sporting 1–0 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.

Mikel Arteta’s side topped the 36-team league phase with a perfect record and remain the only unbeaten team in this season’s Champions League with ten wins and two draws. They have, in fact, lost just two of their last 22 matches in the competition, alongside three draws and 17 wins.

Arsenal’s recent domestic form has been far from impeccable, though they did end their disappointing four-game losing streak — which included an EFL Cup final loss as well as FA Cup elimination — by securing a slender 1–0 home victory over Newcastle United on Saturday. This much-needed result re-established their three-point lead at the top of the Premier League table over title rivals Manchester City.

While ending their 22-year wait for top-flight glory remains the priority, lifting a maiden European crown is just as coveted for the Gunners. Their recent record against Spanish opposition offers significant encouragement ahead of this tie; they have triumphed in each of their last seven Champions League encounters with LaLiga sides.

Arsenal travel to Madrid having lost just one of their last 11 Champions League away games (nine wins and one draw), while they have won five of their previous nine two-legged UCL ties against Spanish opposition, including a quarter-final win over Real Madrid last season. However, they were beaten 2–1 on aggregate by Atleti in the 2017/18 Europa League semi-finals, as a 1–1 draw in London was followed by a 1–0 defeat in the Spanish capital.

In terms of injuries and team news, Atlético Madrid duo Pablo Barrios and José María Giménez are sidelined through injury, while Ademola Lookman and Dávid Hancko are both doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kick-off. Arsenal-linked Julián Alvarez is also a minor doubt due to discomfort.

As for Arsenal, Mikel Merino and Jurriën Timber remain injured. Wednesday’s game may also come too soon for Riccardo Calafiori, while Kai Havertz, Eberechi Eze, and Martín Zubimendi will all be assessed after being withdrawn against Newcastle.

Looking ahead to this fixture, first legs in the latter stages of a tournament can often be cagey affairs, and another low-scoring contest could be in store on Wednesday, as both sides may prioritise defensive stability to ensure they remain firmly in the tie for the return leg in London.

Arsenal’s emphatic four-goal triumph over Atlético Madrid in the league phase will bolster their confidence heading to Madrid, but we are backing the hosts to breach the stubborn Gunners backline on this occasion and come away level on aggregate.

Score Prediction: Atleti 1–1 Arsenal