UCL 2025/26: Semi-finals first leg previews and predictions

The UEFA Champions league is nearing its conclusion with the final four left in the competition. With four elite teams each from Spain, England, France and Germany left in the competition, it’s an exciting matchup on both ends of the draw. 

Here, we present our previews and predictions for each first-leg encounter of the semi-final stage of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Bayern Munich

This is going to be a box-office encounter between two of Europe’s best teams. Bayern Munich and PSG met in the league phase once at the Parc des Princes where the Bavarians got the better of Les Parisiens. Both teams have a plethora of attacking talent on their side and play a really attractive brand of football. However, they both need to watch out for defensive vulnerabilities as their defence has been found wanting on a couple of occasions this season. 

What will favour Bayern Munich is that they do not have the distraction of the league anymore as they have already been crowned the Bundesliga champions while PSG still haven’t secured the French Ligue 1 title as second-placed Lens are not out of sight just yet. 

If we look at their recent form, PSG has four wins and a loss from their last five league encounters. Their recent result was a 3-0 away win against Angers. They also defeated Liverpool convincingly over the two legs of the Champions League quarter-finals, winning by a scoreline of 4-0 on aggregate. The defending champions were exceptional at home, dominating the game from start to finish and were unlucky not to score more. They took a 2-0 lead to Anfield and even though Liverpool dominated the game for a large part of the second leg, they lacked finishing and PSG defended superbly. The French Champions then punished the Reds for their lack of enterprise, scoring two quick goals on the counter, winning 2-0 and finishing the tie emphatically. PSG was the better team and deserved to go through to the semis again. 

However, standing in their way is the most dangerous front three in all of Europe. Bayern Munich’s front three of Luis Diaz, Harry Kane and Michael Olise. Their striker Kane has been particularly lethal, having scored more than 50 goals in all competitions this season. Bayern have won all five of their last five league encounters with their recent one being a seven-goal thriller against Mainz where they came back from a three-goal deficit to win the game in superb fashion. Die Roten also defeated 15-times champions Real Madrid in the quarter-finals in an incredible 180 minutes over two legs. Bayern also have an edge in terms of playing the second leg at home where they have lost only one game all season. 

The knockout stages have brought out the best in this PSG side where they have annihilated Chelsea in the RO16 and then Liverpool in the quarter-finals so it’s not going to be easy for the German champions.  PSG also possess a massive attacking threat in the form of their forwards Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué and Ousmane Dembélé who have performed well in this UCL campaign. 

While PSG won their first continental trophy last season, the six-times champions Bayern Munich haven’t won the Champions League since 2020 and have only made one semi-finals appearance since then. We are all aware that the Bundesliga is their bread and butter and they win it without much opposition almost every season but UCL is where they need to prove their dominance which has gone abegging since the last five years. 

Coming to key injury problems, PSG’s midfield maestro Vitinha could be doubtful for this big matchup as he sustained a heel injury and is currently training individually. Apart from him, Quentin Ndjantou would be unavailable. Bayern have quite a few injury issues with Serge Gnabry, Tom Bischof, Cassiano Kiala, Raphaël Guerriro, Lennart Karl, Sven Ulreich, Wisdom Mike and David Santos all doubtful for this game. In addition, head-coach Vincent Kompany has been suspended and will be in the stands for this game. 

PSG would definitely be affected if Vitinha doesn’t start as he is one of their most important players as he controls the tempo of the game. Though Fabian Ruiz is back which is a huge positive for them and Warren Zaïre-Emery has been excellent in the middle of the park. 

As for Bayern, they wouldn’t hold back in Paris and they will be full of confidence going into this fixture as they have already beaten PSG away from home in the league phase. This is a mouth-watering tie between two of the most exciting teams this season and there isn’t much to choose from barring the fact that Bayern possess a more clinical finisher in Kane while PSG players do miss quite a lot of chances. Having said that, both teams are more or less equally matched and that’s why we believe this could be an end-to-end encounter that may finish in a high-scoring draw in the first leg. 

Score Prediction: PSG 2–2 Bayern

Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal

Two teams still in pursuit of their first ever Champions League trophy will battle at Estadio Metropolitano on Wednesday night, as Atletico Madrid play host to Arsenal. 

The Spanish giants are gearing up for their seventh European Cup/Champions League semi-final and their first since the 2016/17 campaign after edging past Spanish rivals Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.

Long-regarded as a pragmatic side under head coach Diego Simeone, Atletico have re-defined their identity on the continental stage this term, having already recorded their highest-ever goal tally in Europe’s premier competition with 34 goals – eclipsing their previous best from the 2013/14 campaign (26).

The Rojiblancos have found the net in each of their last 12 matches across all competitions, most recently winning 3-2 at home against Athletic Bilbao in La Liga on Saturday, ending a four-game losing run in the top flight and consolidating their place in the top four.

A tricky test against Arsenal awaits Atletico, who suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat at the Emirates during the League Phase earlier this season. Simeone’s men have also won just two of their last 12 matches against English teams in UEFA competition (D2 L8), while they have a mixed record in Champions League semi-finals (W3 L3).

However, Atleti have prevailed in 11 of their last 15 European two-legged ties against English opposition, including all three semi-finals, while they head into Wednesday’s contest in the Spanish capital having lost only two of their last 18 meetings with English clubs in Madrid (W9 D7), so there is reason to be optimistic of success this time around.

As for their opponents, for the first time in the club’s history, Arsenal have reached the Champions League semi-finals for the second successive season, and for the fourth time overall, after edging past Sporting Lisbon 1-0 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.

Mikel Arteta’s side topped the 36-team League Phase with a perfect record (W8 D0 L0) and they remain the only unbeaten team in this season’s Champions League (W10 D2); they have, in fact, lost just two of their last 22 matches in the competition (W17 D3).

Arsenal’s recent domestic form has been far from impeccable, but they ended a disappointing four-game losing streak – which included an EFL Cup final loss and FA Cup elimination – by securing a slender 1-0 home victory over Newcastle United on Saturday. This much-needed result re-established their three-point lead at the top of the Premier League table over title rivals Manchester City.

While ending their 22-year wait for top-flight glory remains the priority, lifting a maiden European crown is just as coveted for the Gunners. Their recent record against Spanish opposition offers significant encouragement ahead of their semi-final with Atletico, having triumphed in each of their last seven Champions League encounters with La Liga sides.

Arsenal travel to Madrid having lost just one of their last 11 Champions League away games (W9 D1), while they have won five of their previous nine two-legged UCL ties against Spanish opposition (L4), including a quarter-final win over Real Madrid last season. However, the Gunners were beaten 2-1 on aggregate by Atletico in the 2017/18 Europa League semi-finals (1-1 draw in London, 1-0 defeat in Madrid).

In terms of injuries and team news, Atletico Madrid duo Pablo Barrios and Jose Gimenez are sidelined through injury, while Ademola Lookman and David Hancko are both doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff. Arsenal-linked Julian Alvarez is also a minor doubt, as he has been carrying ‘discomfort’.

As for Arsenal, Mikel Merino and Jurrien Timber are still injured, and Wednesday’s game may also come too soon for Riccardo Calafiori, while Kai Havertz, Eberechi Eze and Martin Zubimendi will all be assessed after being withdrawn against Newcastle.

Looking ahead to this fixture, first legs in the latter stages of a tournament can often be cagey affairs and a low-scoring contest could be in store on Wednesday, as both sides may prioritise defensive stability to ensure they remain firmly in the tie for the return leg in London.

Arsenal’s emphatic four-goal triumph over Atletico in the League Phase will bolster their confidence heading to Madrid, but we are backing the hosts to breach the stubborn Gunners backline on this occasion and come away with at least a share of the spoils.

Score Prediction: Atleti 1–1 Arsenal