FPL: TOP TRANSFER TIPS | GAMEWEEK 3

Michail Antonio and Saïd Benrahma are the biggest movers with many discarding Mohamed Salah ahead of Liverpool’s fixture against Chelsea.

Harry Kane (£12.3m) has committed to Tottenham Hotspur at least for another season but the uncertainty over his inclusion in Nuno Espírito Santo’s side over the weekend puts a big question mark over his selection ahead of making that final call before the Gameweek 3 deadline slams shut.

West Ham United‘s explosive start to the season has hit the FPL community pretty hard as the majority had put their bets on a different profile of player and are now scrambling around to get them into their squads somehow, while Liverpool hosting Chelsea has resulted in many people jumping ship from Mohamed Salah’s (£12.5m) camp to Romelu Lukaku’s (11.5m).

With all that to consider, let’s take a look at my Top Transfer Tips for Gameweek 3:

Please note: Player valuation and transfer figures are subject to change as we move closer to the Gameweek 3 deadline.

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Konstantinos Tsimikas (£4.2m) | Transfers IN: 355473

After amassing 17 points from two Premier League games, more than three hundred thousand people have opted to transfer in Konstantinos Tsimikas into their FPL squads. That’s a rookie mistake. People who are closely following the Liverpool camp know Andy Robertson (£7.0m) is likely to be Liverpool’s starting left-back and it would take a last-minute setback or warm-up injury to Roberston for Tsimikas to start against Chelsea or the following fixtures.

Tsimikas is likely to get minutes but off the bench against Chelsea, and moving forward, he’ll only be rotated for Cup games or easier fixtures in the Champions League but not the Premier League when Andy Robertson is fit.

Danny Ings (£8.1m) | Transfers IN: 274472

If people are taking a punt on an £8.1m Danny Ings for Gameweek 3, then their transfer may be justifiable. But from Gameweek 4 onwards Aston Villa have a torrid run of fixtures where they face the likes of Chelsea, Everton, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Arsenal and West Ham United. And the sad part, they are one after the other in the exact order.

If you are looking for a mid-to-long-term £8.0m-priced forward, there are better options out there. Leeds, Everton, Manchester United and West Ham all have a great run of fixtures coming up for the next 3-4 Gameweeks.

Ivan Toney (£6.5m) | Transfers OUT: 402511

There are many reasons to transfer out Ivan Toney and to an extent, I agree with those 402511 managers. Brentford have the worst run of fixtures coming up from an attacking perspective.

The Bees face Aston Villa next, and after that have Brighton, Wolves and Liverpool. All four teams are defensively sound, but if you had to pick a team that still have fragility in their setup, it’s Villa. Dean Smith’s side are not looking very efficient at the back this season and their clean sheet against Newcastle papered over a lot of the cracks in the team. So, taking a punt on Toney just for this week might fetch you those crucial differential points.

Saïd Benrahma (£6.3m) | Transfers IN: 810355

Already eight hundred thousand people have transferred in Saïd Benrahma and it would be no surprise to see that number cross the million mark before the Gameweek 3 deadline closes tomorrow. As you can see below, the Algerian has been prolific since the start of the season and has almost doubled his numbers when you look at the expected stats.

The Hammers face Patrick Vieira’s Crystal Palace this Gameweek at London Stadium. With the crowd behind them, West Ham will dictate proceedings and Saïd Benrahma will certainly run the show dazzling through the heart of the Palace defence. A goal involvement will definitely not be out of the reckoning.

Michail Antonio (£7.8m) | Transfers IN: 788114

While his teammate has massively overperformed his potential, it is not the case for Michail Antonio. The West Ham #9 is finally showing the world what he is capable of and the numbers duly justify that. His 29 points haul and six-goal involvements from two games deserved more attention and this week he certainly is getting that.

Playing host to Crystal Palace, Antonio will be licking his lips as Vieira’s philosophy of playing out of the back and his defenders’ unfamiliarity with such a system will keep Antonio and Co. on their toes and ready to pounce as and when opportunities arrive. In fact, in Antonio’s case, I believe if he can stay fit, he is the type of asset that would surely bag loads of goals throughout the season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.2m) | Transfers IN: 268825

There is absolutely nothing wrong with managers looking to get Dominic Calvert-Lewin into their FPL squads from Gameweek 3. The Toffees forward has had 9 Shots, all Inside the Box, 6 Shots on Target, 3 Big Chances and an expected goals (xG) score of 2.23 which is the most compared to any other player.

But the stumbling block here is that Everton are visiting the Amex Stadium to face the Seagulls. Brighton are defensively solid and, more importantly, aerially strong – something Dominic Calvert-Lewin thrives on. My advice: Go for DCL from Gameweek 4 instead of this week. There are other teams and forwards with better fixtures and goal involvement possibilities.

Luke Shaw (£5.5m) | Transfers OUT: 211204

He’s highest-owned defender in Fantasy Premier League, but people are slowly losing patience with the Manchester United fullback. Priced at £5.5m, Luke Shaw’s five points from United’s opening two fixtures has underwhelmed a lot of managers in the FPL community. As far as what I can see, the catalyst for that was Reece James’ (£5.6m) performance against Arsenal.

But what’s baffling is people are willing to take a punt on a Chelsea fullback who have a very tough run of fixtures till Gameweek 6, while Shaw in that period faces the likes of Wolves, Newcastle, West Ham and Everton. Shaw can easily outscore James in the coming weeks and being rational about this is the best way to go in my opinion.

Ben Chilwell (£5.8m) | Transfers OUT: 188695

Another Chelsea fullback, but this one has been dropping in price and will drop to £5.7m by the time Gameweek 3 ends. For me, Ben Chilwell (£5.8m) is a decent pick and if I had to choose between him and Reece James, I would wait for Chilwell’s price to drop to £5.7m or even £5.6m and then transfer him in for the long run.

Out of the two, I feel Chilwell has more potential to reward you with attacking outputs in the long run. Before the season began Chilwell was priced at £6.0m, which was inflated in my view, so if it drops to £5.6m or £5.7m, I believe he will be a very good buy and one to keep an eye on.

Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) | Transfers OUT: 185631

Two games is a very small sample size, but there was something strikingly different about Mohamed Salah’s game in the first two fixtures as he looked to be dropping deeper to receive the ball and create chances for his teammates while being quick enough to be inside the box on most occasions. And now I have data to prove my point.

In the image given below, you can see that Salah hasn’t received any Big Chances yet while himself serving it on a plate for his teammates as his Big Chances Created (BCC) and expected Assists (xA) numbers have really shot up while he is still racking up similar or even more shots and touches inside the box compared to previous seasons. If he can continue doing this, Salah will be the most sought-after FPL asset this season. His goals and assists can easily take him beyond that 250 points mark.

Patrick Bamford (£7.9m) | Transfers OUT: 163380

Patrick Bamford’s price has dropped to £7.9m as the Leeds forward could only muster up an assist to his name, that too after playing against Manchester United and Everton. But that wasn’t enough for the 160,000+ FPL managers who have lost faith in him. The caveat is despite those difficult fixtures, Bamford’s expected Goals (xG) and expected Assists (xA) stand at 0.45 and 0.61 respectively.

Leeds United will visit Turf Moor to face Burnley which should be a happy hunting ground for Patrick Bamford considering his underlying numbers. Moreover, after Leeds face Liverpool in Gameweek 4, the Yorkshire club have one of the best fixture-runs from Gameweek 5-10. If you have him in your squad, keep him. You’re about to hit the jackpot. If you intend on buying him but are skeptical about the Liverpool fixture, take a punt on him from Gameweek 5. I might do it too.