UCL 2025/26 play-off round: First leg previews and predictions
The UEFA Champions League returns this midweek, with teams who finished in the ninth to 24th spots in the league phase table fighting it out for progression into the Round of 16.
Eight play-off ties are to be held over two legs to decide the final 16 teams.
Some really exciting encounters await us here, with elite clubs like Real Madrid, holders Paris Saint-Germain, and Juventus looking to book their place in the next round, while underdogs like Benfica, Bodø/Glimt, and Qarabag will be looking to upset the apple cart and move into uncharted territory.
Here, we present our previews and predictions for each first-leg encounter of the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 play-off round.
Galatasaray vs Juventus
Galatasaray are performing well in the Süper Lig and currently sit at the top of the table. They’ve been unbeaten in their last four games, though their last Champions League game resulted in a loss away to Manchester City.
Juventus, on the other hand, have been in dismal form, having won only one game out of their last five, with two defeats and two draws. Their most recent game ended in defeat to Inter Milan. The Bianconeri are currently sitting in fifth place in the Serie A table, with a 15-point gap to league leaders Inter.
Both teams have a few injury concerns coming into this game, with Galatasaray set to miss Enes Emre Büyük, with Metehan Baltaci suspended, while Juve have Emil Holm, Khéphren Thuram, Arkadiusz Milik, and Dusan Vlahovic all doubtful for this game.
Even though Juve have several talented game-changing players like Kenan Yildiz, Lois Openda, and Weston McKennie, their form is definitely concerning for coach Luciano Spalletti. Galatasaray also have dangerous players on their side in the shape of Victor Osimhen, Leroy Sané, and Ilkay Gündogan, who can trouble the Juve backline.
Moreover, Galatasaray are a physical side with a good defensive structure and like to break up play with tactical fouls and disruptions. Juve, on the other hand, have been vulnerable defensively. This is a difficult game to call, but we believe it will be a tight and feisty affair that ends in a draw.
Score Prediction: Galatasaray 1–1 Juve
Benfica vs Real Madrid
This is a repeat fixture from the Matchday of the league phase that ended in a thrilling 4–2 win for the hosts at the Estádio da Luz. Courtesy of this win, Benfica went on to qualify for the play-offs on goal difference. Real Madrid would definitely have been wounded by that loss and will be looking for revenge over two legs here.
Benfica are currently third in the Liga Portugal table with a seven-point gap to league leaders Porto. Their recent form has been great, with four wins and a draw in their last five encounters. Real Madrid, meanwhile, have also been winning convincingly since the loss to Benfica in the Champions League. Their most recent win was a 4–1 thrashing of Real Sociedad.
Injuries have decimated Benfica, with about five of their key players out injured. Alexander Bah, Samuel Soares, Fredrik Aursnes, João Veloso, and Richard Ríos are all unavailable, with Olivio Tomé suspended. For Real Madrid, Éder Militão, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo will miss this game through injury issues, while Raúl Asencio is out suspended.
Benfica are an aggressive team and like to play on the front foot, featuring attacking players who cannot be taken for granted. That said, the good news for Real Madrid is that their most impactful players, Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé, are in good touch, and there aren’t many defences in world football that can stop these two when they are on song.
Benfica coach José Mourinho is a shrewd tactician, though, and will be devising ways to thwart the Real Madrid attack. It’s not easy going away to Benfica and getting a positive result. This could be yet another thrilling encounter, though this time it may end in Real Madrid’s favour.
Score Prediction: Benfica 2–3 Real Madrid
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta
Both teams are in similar form, with Dortmund only suffering defeat in one game out of their last five. The only game they lost was a home defeat to Inter in the last league phase fixture of the Champions League. As for Atalanta, their last defeat also arrived in the Champions League, when they lost to Union Saint-Gilloise away from home. The Bergamaschi have been unbeaten since then, with three wins and a draw.
From an injury perspective, both teams have only a few players out due to fitness concerns. While Dortmund will miss Emre Can due to a groin injury, Atalanta will be without Giacomo Raspadori and Charles De Ketelaere for this fixture.
Though Dortmund have been pretty consistent at home, this is a tough Atalanta side. Knowing that they’ll play away in the second leg, BVB need to take the initiative in this first leg. The likes of Serhou Guirassy, Ramy Bensebaini, and Maximilian Beier will be key for them in attack, while Atalanta will miss the creativity of De Ketelaere. Since Dortmund are playing at home, they do have a slight advantage to win this game and take a slender lead to the second leg in Bergamo.
Score Prediction: BVB 2–1 Atalanta
Qarabag vs Newcastle United
Relative newcomers Qarabag have been the talk of the town as they exceeded all expectations to qualify for the play-offs, where they’re set to face a dangerous Newcastle United team who have secured several big results on the road in the Champions League this season.
If we look at the recent form of these two teams, Qarabag have done well domestically, having won their last three games. Though they got thrashed 6–0 by Liverpool in their last league phase game, playing at home makes them a different proposition. The Magpies, meanwhile, have just got two consecutive wins but have lost three games prior to that, though two of those were against difficult teams in Liverpool and Manchester City.
As for injuries, Qarabag have a fully fit squad, while Newcastle have a long list of key injuries: Bruno Guimarães, Joelinton, Tino Livramento, Fabian Schär, Lewis Miley, and Emil Krafth are all out injured.
With their midfield duo Bruno Guimarães and Joelinton out, Newcastle are definitely weakened in the centre of the pitch, an area where Qarabag could take advantage. This is a big game for the hosts, as going away to St James’ Park in the second leg will be very challenging. Considering Newcastle’s injury issues, we believe Qarabag have a great chance to grab a win here and defend their lead in the reverse fixture.
Score Prediction: Qarabag 2–1 Newcastle
Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain
This marks the first continental meeting between the two Ligue 1 sides, for which Monaco will draw confidence from their narrow 1–0 league victory at the Stade Louis II in November.
After opening their European journey without a win in three matches (alongside two draws, one defeat), Sébastien Pocognoli’s men steadied the ship by claiming two victories from the next three fixtures (alongside a draw), though those proved to be their only successes across the eight-game league phase.
Following a humbling 6–1 defeat to Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu on Matchday 7, a goalless draw with Juventus in the final round was enough to secure them a 21st-place finish, edging them one point clear of the elimination line.
In contrast, PSG come into this contest on the back of a 3–1 defeat at Rennes, a result that saw Luis Enrique’s side slip to second in the Ligue 1 table and register their third loss in ten outings in 2026 (alongside six wins and one draw).
The Parisians’ other setbacks this calendar year arrived in a disappointing Coupe de France exit to city rivals Paris FC and a 2–1 defeat away at Sporting in Matchday 7 of the Champions League.
That said, recent visits to Monaco have resulted in few fond memories for Les Parisiens, who have managed just one win from their last six trips here, with the defeat in November marking their fourth loss in that sequence.
Looking at player availability across the two camps, the hosts have been unlucky with a host of injuries this season, with Lukas Hradecky, Takumi Minamino, and Mohammed Salisu remaining sidelined with knee issues, while Kassoum Ouattara, Eric Dier, and Paul Pogba are ruled out with calf problems. Pape Cabral is also unavailable through a muscle injury, while both Lamine Camara and Maghnes Akliouche are doubts after being forced off last time out.
Meanwhile, PSG are without winger Quentin Ndjantou due to a lingering hamstring complaint, while Fabián Ruiz is set to miss a sixth straight outing with a knee issue.
Looking ahead to this fixture, Monaco have made a habit of unsettling PSG on their home turf, and their recent European home resilience suggests another stern test awaits the holding champions. However, the hosts are stretched at the moment with a host of injuries to key personnel, and PSG’s greater depth and knockout experience could prove decisive in a narrow first-leg contest.
Score Prediction: Monaco 1–2 PSG
Club Brugge vs Atlético Madrid
Club Brugge head into this contest determined to extend their European campaign, having narrowly missed out on automatic progression to the last 16 in the league phase.
The Belgian side finished 19th in the standings with ten points from eight matches, recording three wins, one draw, and four defeats — a return that underlines both their competitiveness and inconsistency on the continental stage.
Domestically, however, Ivan Leko’s men have shown encouraging form, claiming a 2–1 victory over Cercle Brugge in their most recent outing, meaning they have now won four of their last five matches in all competitions.
Their home performances in the Champions League have also been relatively solid, with two wins, one draw, and one defeat from four matches.
Atlético Madrid, meanwhile, arrive in Belgium looking to bounce back from a disappointing 3–0 defeat to Rayo Vallecano in LaLiga. That result followed an emphatic 4–0 victory over Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, highlighting the inconsistency that has defined their campaign.
With 13 points from eight matches, Atleti finished 14th in the league phase table with four wins, one draw, and three defeats. Diego Simeone’s side have shown attacking promise, scoring 17 goals, but they have also conceded 15, which reflects a gradual shift away from their traditionally rigid defensive structure. Moreover, their away form remains a concern, given they have managed just one win, one draw, and two defeats on the road in Europe.
In terms of team news and injuries, Club Brugge could be without Dani van den Heuvel and Lynnt Audoor, with both players considered doubtful for this encounter. Atlético Madrid, meanwhile, will be without Pablo Barrios, who is sidelined with a thigh injury.
Looking ahead to this fixture, with momentum on their side and a strong record at home, Club Brugge could capitalise on Atlético Madrid’s inconsistency in the first leg. If the hosts maintain their intensity, they should have enough to secure a narrow first-leg advantage.
Score Prediction: Club Brugge 2–1 Atleti
Bodø/Glimt vs Inter Milan
Bodø/Glimt’s first foray into the Champions League looked set to end in the league phase, but the competition’s most motherly team sealed progression in one of the most spectacular ways. After failing to win any of their opening six games, the Norwegian side spectacularly recovered by beating two of Europe’s biggest names in their last two fixtures.
Against all odds, Bodø won their final pair of fixtures — 3–1 at home to Manchester City and 2–1 away to Atlético Madrid — and seized the penultimate qualifying spot on a chaotic last Matchday.
The Nerazzurri, on the other hand, have arrived in the play-offs via an uneven league phase campaign, in which they won their first four games while conceding just one goal before suffering three consecutive defeats.
A 2–0 away win over Borussia Dortmund was not enough in the end as they narrowly missed out on automatic qualification by finishing tenth with 15 points.
Twice-beaten finalists in the past three years, Inter truly excel in two-legged ties: excluding finals, they have won ten and lost just one of their last 15 knockout matches in Europe’s top competition.
In terms of team news and injuries, Bodø boss Kjetil Knutsen named the same line-up against Man City and Atleti, so he will try to stick to that script this midweek. Only experienced midfielder Ulrik Saltnes is an injury doubt for them. As for Inter, midfield pair Nicolò Barella and Hakan Çalhanoglu returned from injury to face Juventus and both should start as they are suspended this weekend, though wingback Denzel Dumfries may not yet be ready to return.
Looking ahead to this fixture, set to face sub-zero conditions and a tricky astro pitch, Inter will be put through a tough test in this first leg, particularly as Bodø also play a slick brand of football. However, Bodø are not unbeatable, with both Monaco and Juventus having won here earlier this season, and will struggle to resist the Nerazzurri‘s insatiable attack.
Score Prediction: Bodø 2–2 Inter
Olympiacos vs Bayer Leverkusen
José Luis Mendilibar’s Olympiacos recovered after failing to win their opening five fixtures by claiming victories in each of their final three outings. That revival began with a narrow 1–0 triumph away to Kairat, followed by a 2–0 win over Leverkusen at home and concluded with a 2–1 success over Ajax on the final Matchday, a run that lifted them to 18th place in the 36-team table, two points clear of the elimination line.
This means Olympiacos have now secured passage to the Champions League knockout rounds for the first time since 2013/14, and further history now beckons, as the Erythrolefkoi could also record four straight victories at the main stage of the competition for the first time ever.
Winning the home leg in six of their last seven European ties (losing one) serves as a strong confidence booster for Olympiacos, particularly given they have beaten Leverkusen in two of their three previous meetings — both in Piraeus — with a 6–2 triumph back in 2002 preceding that league phase success.
However, Leverkusen will also arrive in a buoyant mood, with Saturday’s 4–0 thrashing of St Pauli marking their latest upturn in fortunes and lifting them to sixth in the Bundesliga standings, just three points shy of the top four with a game in hand.
That victory extended Die Werkself’s unbeaten run to six matches across all competitions (five wins, one draw), having begun 2026 with three straight defeats, a run which ended with that Champions League loss in Piraeus.
Meanwhile, a commanding 3–0 success over Villarreal on the final Matchday secured a 16th-place finish for Kasper Hjulmand’s side, with 12 points taken from three wins, three draws, and two losses.
In terms of team news and injuries, Olympiacos are expected to remain without midfielder Theofanis Bakoulas, while defender Francisco Ortega and striker Mehdi Taremi are both doubts after missing the weekend game at Levadiakos, with the latter also a booking away from suspension alongside Santiago Hezze and Dani García.
The visitors, meanwhile, will remain without forward Eliesse Ben Seghir, who is still nursing an ankle problem, while goalkeeper Mark Flekken is also recuperating from a knee injury he picked up in January. Nathan Tella is out of action with a foot problem.
Looking ahead to this fixture, Olympiacos may not be at their best heading into Tuesday’s clash, but the home side are expected to raise their level with the Piraeus crowd firmly behind them. Leverkusen arrive with momentum, though three defeats from their last six away outings underline a soft underbelly, particularly given their struggles on previous visits to the Karaiskakis, so we are tipping the hosts to edge a hard-fought victory.
Score Prediction: Olympiacos 2–1 Leverkusen
