Can Aston Villa’s revival lead them to top four in the Premier League?

From a sluggish start to the season to playing like title challengers, Aston Villa’s turnaround has been phenomenal. After not strengthening the squad in the summer due to financial restrictions, Villa came into the season with only two major signings in Evann Guessand and Marco Bizot. The other potentially big signings — Jadon Sancho, Victor Lindelöf, and Harvey Elliott — have barely featured for them and were low-risk moves. 

Early in the season, Villa seemed considerably off the pace with only three points from their first five league games and were languishing in 18th place in the table. However, they have since reversed their fortunes in fine fashion, winning nine of their last ten games in the league, winning their last 13 games out of 15 across all competitions. 

Now, the Villans are third in the Premier League table, three points off the top. They’re also third in the Europa League table, level on points with leaders Olympique Lyonnais and separated only by goal difference. 

Even if we consider their marginal gap from Arsenal, Villa cannot be considered title challengers just yet. There’s still a long way to go, and playing league games with Thursday-night football, given their comparatively shallow squad depth, is going to be a tall order for Unai Emery and Co. That said, while the Premier League trophy may prove a step too far, they do have a genuine shot at European silverware. 

Here, we look at how they’ve managed the turnaround, and whether they can secure a top-four finish come May this time around, having missed out narrowly last season. 

Emery staying true to his tactics

Since taking up the Aston Villa job in 2022, Unai Emery has truly transformed the Birmingham outfit. Without spending a lot of money on new signings, the Spanish head coach has been immensely successful in turning them into a lethal force.

Emery’s best moment with Villa thus far came at the end of the 2023/24 season, when his team marked a return to the Champions League after a hiatus of four decades. Their Champions League campaign in the 2024/25 season was quite impressive as well, as they managed to reach the quarter-finals. While they did get knocked out by eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain, they did not leave without putting up a fight and even beat the Ligue 1 giants at home, almost snatching the tie.

The start of the 2025/26 season was somewhat underwhelming, and it felt like the intensity of the previous season’s schedule had affected both Emery and his squad. Villa failed to win a single game from their first five encounters, but even after massive criticism from ex-players and pundits, Emery stuck to his guns. It’s quite easy to be influenced by the outside noise and engage in self-doubt, but Emery seemingly did none of that. He continued to set up his team in the same way with minor tactical tweaks, and his players ultimately repaid his faith on the pitch.

From struggling to find the net in their first five games (two goals with 3.9 xG and four big chances created) to scoring freely in their last five games (12 goals with 8.8 xG and ten big chances created), Villa’s improvement has been absolutely incredible. Emery’s ability to utilise his squad and get the absolute best out of players has been another reason for the club’s transformation under him over the past few seasons.

Villa’s main man Ollie Watkins has not been firing properly; once he does, they could become even more dangerous. For the time being, Emery needs to be given a lot of credit for the change in Villa’s fortunes not just this season, but ever since he arrived at the club.

Performing as a team with key players returning to form 

A coach can only do so much in terms of providing tactical insight and training their players a certain way, but if the players don’t buy into the approach and deliver the right results, it counts for nothing.

A few players who had been instrumental in Villa’s performances last season were underperforming at the start of this one. Youri Tielemans, Morgan Rogers, and Ollie Watkins were all misfiring and looking sluggish. However, over the past month or so, they have shown glimpses of form and impacted the results positively, while other players have also chipped in with vital goals.

Watkins has been particularly underwhelming, with a return of only three goals from 16 appearances this season. Rogers marked last season — his second in the top flight — with 18 goal contributions in 37 league games, while Tielemans also had a decent return of ten goal contributions in 36 league games. This time around, while Rogers has got going with eight G/A in 16 appearances, the other two had been struggling, until recent weeks. Both Tielemans and Watkins have marked a return to form with top performances in the last few games.

Alternatively, when the big players aren’t performing, it’s an opportunity for the others in the team to step up, and players like Matty Cash, Emi Buendía, Boubacar Kamara, and Amadou Onana have done just that, having contributed with match-winning performances in hard-fought games.

We have also seen over the years that playing as a collective rather than relying on individual brilliance leads to sustained success. If Aston Villa continue to combine both, they could be unstoppable this season.

Strong home record

Villa Park has been an absolute fortress over the past few seasons. For context, among the traditional Big Six teams, Aston Villa only lost to Arsenal at home last season. In total, they registered 11 wins, seven draws, and only one loss in 19 home games last term.

This season as well, the trend has continued. Villa have already defeated Manchester City and Arsenal at home, and barring the defeat to Crystal Palace they haven’t lost at home. In eight home games this season, they have six wins, one defeat, and one draw.

For a team to perform well over the course of a season, getting wins in away games usually tends to be more difficult, and so their home form becomes critical. The better the home record, the stronger their chances are to finish at the higher end of the table.

This is something Aston Villa have achieved over the past few seasons, making sure every visiting team treat a trip to Villa Park with respect rather than disdain.

Conclusion 

Without a doubt, Aston Villa have hit a purple patch and will want to continue this winning streak for as long as possible.

There has been talk about them being genuine title contenders after the last-gasp win against Arsenal, but I don’t believe Villa are ready for a title charge yet. There’s no doubt that they are a quality side with some really top players, but this season they don’t have the kind of squad that can challenge for the title over a 38-game season while also looking to go deep in a European competition.

Furthermore, injuries are inevitable given the rigorous schedule these players go through, and even Unai Emery will be aware of the fact that winning the league would be a miraculous feat given his limited squad options.

Having said that, Villa do have a decent chance to secure Champions League qualification again for next season, though they will need a few reinforcements in January.

Barring Arsenal and Man City, other top teams have been inconsistent. Liverpool are in transition and struck by poor form, Chelsea have been hit by injuries and inconsistency, while Man United and Spurs simply haven’t been good enough.

Hence, top four is a realistic goal for Aston Villa alongside success in the Europa League. Though there are a few other factors that need to favour them in order for them to ensure Champions League qualification, if they are able to sustain their positive momentum, add vital reinforcements in the upcoming transfer window, and manage to avoid fatigue and injuries to a considerable extent, then Villa will be there and thereabouts come the end of the season.