Baseball betting tends to be a bit different from other forms of sports gambling. Beginners often find it challenging when getting started. To better understand MLB betting, you must familiarize yourself with the basic baseball betting tips.
The sport is widely recognized as one of the leaders in the sports betting space. Baseball gambling has been around since the inception of the sport. Below are the best MLB betting tips that will help you win big in 2022. Read on to discover these baseball betting gems.
A Brief Overview of MLB Betting
Unlike basketball and football, where most wagers are based on the point spread, baseball happens to be a moneyline sport. Run line or prop bets are also available in MLB betting, but they are not as popular. In most cases, you will be required to only choose which player or team wins, exclusive of covers.
With moneyline bets, you must either pick the favorite (the team expected to win) or the underdog (the team expected to lose). You should understand that the odds for favorites are always lower than those of the underdogs.
That essentially means that you will gain less monetary wise whenever you wager on the favorites. On the other hand, wagering on the underdog will earn you more when that team wins the game.
Though uncommon, you can also choose to wager on the spread, often called the run line. Another baseball betting alternative is the over/under or total, which typically alludes to the number of runs to be scored in the game in question.
Profitable MLB Betting Tips in 2022
The chances are that you are in MLB betting to make some money. If that is the case, the MLB betting picks discussed below will help improve your winning probability.
Avoid Big Favorites
Sportsbook operators understand that recreational baseball betting fans love to go for the favorites. As such, operators are known to capitalize on public bias, shading their lines appropriately.
Therefore, popular teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cubs will be overpriced merely because the regular Joe will pick them regardless of whether they are -170 or -220 on sports betting.
When favorites win, the payout that gets to your account is small. When they lose, you get crashed really hard. In other words, the favorite’s juice is not worth the squeeze.
Scout for Profitable Plus-Money Underdogs
For you to breakeven when betting on basketball and football spreads, you must win at least 54% of the time. In MLB betting, avoiding favorites and sticking to plus-money underdogs can win at a sub -50% and still close the year with positive units won.
When an underdog loses, you will only lose your stake. When they win, you get to enjoy valuable plus-money payouts.
Wager Against the Public
For decades, professionals have taken advantage of this baseball betting secret. It is wise to go against the public because, in most cases, the public loses. The Regular Joes wager based on their gut instincts.
A regular Joe will bet on home teams, favorites, teams with star players, and popular franchises. With such a broken betting strategy, you will often fall victim to recency bias. Most players are more likely to bet on a team just because it appeared great in its last game and avoid the other because it appeared weak.
By going contrarian, you can capitalize on those public biases and exploit artificially inflated statistics. The best practice is to place yourself on the side of the bookie because the house always wins.
Follow The Reverse Line Movement
Baseball betting is more than just going contrarian and picking plus-money underdogs. You will also need to be on the sharp edge of every game. Align yourself with professional punters with long track records of MLB gambling success.
Among the best ways to locate sharp baseball betting action is by following the Reverse Line Movement, abbreviated RLM. This is when the betting line shifts in the reverse direction of the betting percentages.
For instance, say the Yankees open -150 against the Cubs (+130). Yankees are getting 75% of moneyline wagers, but you notice the team fall from -150 to -135.
At the same time, the Cubs shift from +130 to +115. In this case, why would the bookmaker drop the line to give Yankee bettors a more favorable number? Well, because sharp action came on the Cubs. Although Chicago is only getting 25% of the wagers, the line has moved in its favor.
Statistics show that since 2005, MLB teams with under 35% moneyline wagers with RLM of at least a cent have witnessed a 44% upsurge, with +16 units won. If you can raise the RLM by 10 cents or more, the better.
Explore Divisional Dogs
Divisional MLB teams play against each other more frequently. The high frequency breeds familiarity, and the playing field is somewhat level, benefiting the underdogs. According to statistics, dogs in divisional games have lost 72 units, while underdogs in games outside the division have lost 645 units since 2005.
Divisional underdogs in MLB betting perform better when subjected to two more filters. One, road teams, where most people overvalue home-field advantage, generating an inflated value on visitors.
Second, high totals, where more runs are expected, leading to more variance – often aiding the underdog.
Understand the Weather
While most MLB betting money is made on moneyline bets, you can still take advantage of totals. One of the key factors you should consider before placing a totals bet is the weather.
Study shows that when it’s blowing in at 5 mph and above, the under is likely to go 960-781-89, which is a 55.1% move. This is good for a 6.4% ROI, and 117.6 units won. When the wind blows in, it can easily turn home runs into warning-track outs, advantaging the underdogs. When it blows out, it will fly the ball into homers, advantaging overs.
Shop for Best Line
You should open several bookie accounts for multiple options when looking for the best and most profitable odds. Having just one bookie account means that you are restricted to what that operator offers.
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