Following a nail-biting finish to the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, where championship leader Max Verstappen held off Lando Norris’ late push to win his fifth Grand Prix of the season and extend his lead to 48 points over Charles Leclerc in second, the eighth round of the 2024 Formula One season will see teams and drivers travel to the Principality of Monaco.

By bringing a raft of upgrades for the Imola GP, the teams have dramatically shaken up the pecking order ahead of the marquee event on the F1 calendar. With Monaco being a completely different track to any other circuit on the calendar, some sides may be bringing in track-specific upgrades, while others will be stepping into the unknown come the Practice session on Friday. 

In this article, I present to you my predictions for the 2024 Monaco Grand Prix.

Monaco Grand Prix 2024: Preview 

#1 McLaren to push Red Bull again

The recent set of upgrades brought in by McLaren has seen them leapfrog Ferrari as the ones with the second-fastest car on the grid behind Red Bull, despite the Maranello-based team having brought their own set of upgrades to Imola. 

Towards the back half of the Imola GP, Lando Norris, fresh from his Miami GP win, almost got the better of Max Verstappen to win his second consecutive race but ran out of laps in the end. 

Although people will point to McLaren’s previous low-speed corner issues, in recent times, telemetry data suggests the team have improved their performance on that facet, though they still tend to struggle when there are varied cornering characteristics. 

Given Monaco is a consistent low-speed track with an average lap speed of 150 kmph, McLaren should do well compared to previous seasons. 

#2 Aston Martin going backwards 

Aston Martin’s supposedly major upgrades failed them massively in Imola. If you look for a direct comparison, Fernando Alonso finished second last year in Monaco and nearly took the pole. This season, it’d really be a miracle for both the Aston Martin drivers to make it through to Q3 on Saturday. 

The British side have lost both race pace and one-lap pace (the second being more crucial on the Monaco circuit than anywhere else in the F1 calendar). The scary part is that VCARB are closer to Aston Martin than they are to the likes of Mercedes, who are fourth on the pecking order. 

#3 Rain to play a major role again

There is prediction for rain over the weekend, making things more interesting and bringing extra jeopardy into play. 

As of now, the weather forecast suggests that temperatures will not cross the 22°C mark throughout the weekend, while there is a strong possibility of rain on both Friday and Saturday. The sky is forecast to be clear on race day, however, with just an 8% chance of rain, though there will be constant wind on all three days. 

Monaco Grand Prix 2024: Predictions 

Who will win the race? 

Lando Norris and McLaren have come of age over the last couple of weekends. The British driver is currently in the form of his life and, given the recent strides his team have made to close the gap to Red Bulls, he is firm favourite to win the Monaco GP. 

Given there’s very little room to make up lost ground with overtakes, McLaren’s one-lap pace advantage will come in handy during this weekend’s Qualifying session, especially with rain around the corner. 

However, it would really be foolish to ever write off Max Verstappen, especially if there’s rain on the cards. 

Surprise Driver: Carlos Sainz 

The Spanish driver has had an average last few races. After a scintillating start to his 2024 campaign, Sainz has had three back-to-back P5 finishes. Although this is by no means a bad return, the Spaniard is certainly capable of delivering more; he may do just that in Monaco. 

Surprise Team: Alpine

After a disastrous start to their 2024 season, Alpine are slowly making progress and have started their ascension towards the top of the mid pack, where they usually belong.

For a track that doesn’t require much engine power, the Alpine cars should do well here. They have the aerodynamic packages and chassis upgrades in place to make the most of this edition of the Monaco Grand Prix. 

Monaco Grand Prix 2024: Race Info 

Circuit: Circuit de Monaco
Practice Session 1 time: 17:00, May 24
Practice Session 2 time: 20:30, May 24
Practice Session 3 time: 16:00, May 25
Qualifying time: 19:30, May 25
Main race time: 18:30, May 26
Where to watch: F1 TV Pro and FanCode

(All timings IST)