UCL 2025/26: Round of 16 first leg previews and predictions
With the business end of the season upon us, the Round of 16 of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League kicks off this midweek.
One side of the draw leading to this year’s final in Budapest has Liverpool, PSG, Chelsea, Man City, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich all stacked up against each other, while the other only has Arsenal and Barcelona in terms of heavyweights in a relatively easier draw.
Some massive encounters await us in the Round of 16, with PSG facing Chelsea, Real Madrid clashing with Manchester City, and Atalanta up against Bayern Munich.
Here, we present our previews and predictions for each first-leg encounter of the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 Round of 16.
Galatasaray vs Liverpool
Turkish side Galatasaray will meet Liverpool again in the Round of 16. They played each other in the league phase, where Gala won the home game courtesy of a Victor Osimhen penalty. That match was very disruptive, and after scoring the opener the Galatasaray players defended well and didn’t let Liverpool get any sort of momentum or clear-cut chances.
Amid a poor run of form in the Premier League and losses in the Champions League to Galatasaray and PSV, the Reds turned around their form in the Champions League and ended up in the top eight, while Galatasaray had to come through the play-offs, where they defeated Juventus.
Looking at the two teams’ recent form, Liverpool haven’t been overly convincing and have at times found it difficult to get going, putting themselves under pressure and often ending games in chaotic fashion. Their defensive issues and loss of focus in the dying phases of the game have led to conceding poor goals and quite a few dropped points. That is something Liverpool will have to be wary of going into this tough away fixture. Having said that, they have lost only one game in their last five encounters across all competitions and have been able to find a way to win even when they have struggled.
As for Galatasaray, they also returned to winning ways after two consecutive defeats and are now on a three-game winning streak. Even in their play-off tie against Juventus, they weren’t the favourites, yet they blew away the Old Lady in the first leg and almost killed the tie before Juve came back at home and pushed the game into extra time, though the Turkish outfit still managed to make it to the last 16.
From a player-availability standpoint, Galatasaray will miss Enes Emre Büyük through injury, while Metehan Baltaci is out suspended. Liverpool will also miss some key players in Alexander Isak, Conor Bradley, and Wataru Endo, with Geovanni Leoni and Stefan Bajcetic also out for the long term.
Coming to this match-up, since Galatasaray are going to play the second leg away at Anfield, they will want to win the game by at least a two-goal margin and defend their lead in the second tie. However, it’s easier said than done, as Liverpool have a superior team with quality forward and midfield operators, especially with Florian Wirtz returning to the team after a back injury.
The hosts too have dangerous players, such as Victor Osimhen, Baris Yilmaz, and Noa Lang, who can cause problems for the Liverpool back line. A draw won’t be a bad result for Liverpool here, even more so considering they haven’t done well away against Galatasaray in their previous encounters.
This is a difficult game to call, but we believe Liverpool possess enough firepower to hurt Galatasaray, especially if the hosts play an open game. However, considering their recent head-to-head record away in Istanbul, we expect a cagey draw to be the likeliest outcome here.
Score Prediction: Galatasaray 1–1 Liverpool
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
While Bayern Munich were the second-placed team in the league phase, La Dea defeated another German outfit, Borussia Dortmund, in the play-offs to squeeze through to the Round of 16, upsetting them in dramatic fashion.
Atalanta are the only remaining Italian representative in the Champions League this season, and the former Europa League winners will want to go as far as possible. However, standing in their way are six-time winners Bayern Munich, who have been simply exceptional this season.
Bayern are dominating the Bundesliga as usual, but their numbers have been simply mind-boggling this time around. They have already scored a massive 92 goals in the league in just 25 games and have an 11-point cushion at the top, which means they are poised to win the league early and focus solely on the Champions League, where again they have been top class, having lost only one game in the league phase and managed some great results against Chelsea and PSG. They have won all of their last six games.
As for Atalanta, since their win against Dortmund, their form has fallen off a cliff. The Bergamaschi have managed to get only one point from two Serie A games and also drew with Lazio in the first leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final tie. Their record against German teams in Europe has been great, but Bayern will be a very different kind of test.
Injury-wise, Atalanta will miss the services of Giacomo Raspadori, Charles De Ketelaere, and Giorgio Scalvini, with Ederson doubtful to start. Bayern too will miss a few players in Harry Kane, Alphonso Davies, Manuel Neuer, Hiroki Ito, and Cassiano Kiala.
Even with Harry Kane missing, Bayern still possess attacking players in Luis Díaz, Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala, and Nicolas Jackson, who can score freely in the Englishman’s absence. Besides, Atalanta have been vulnerable in defence and leaking goals; stopping this German side from scoring will be near impossible for them. Though they could trouble Die Roten, we expect Bayern to take home a slender lead for the second leg.
Score Prediction: Atalanta 1–2 Bayern
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Familiar foes come face to face again in the Champions League. Here’s a heavyweight clash we have seen so many times in the last few seasons, though it never ceases to thrill.
Last year, Real Madrid got the better of Manchester City in the play-offs and managed to reach the quarter-finals. The two met again in the league phase at the Santiago Bernabéu earlier this season, where City got the better of Real Madrid.
Real Madrid haven’t been convincing this season, even though one could argue that they are still in the title race in LaLiga and remain in contention for a 16th Champions League title with the kind of quality they possess. Injury to their star forward Kylian Mbappé has certainly weakened them in attack, as he has been their prominent goal-scorer this season.
Los Blancos’ Champions League campaign this time around has been ordinary by their exceptionally high standards. They couldn’t secure automatic qualification to the last 16, having lost to Liverpool, Man City, and Benfica in the league phase. In their last five games across all competitions, they have won three and lost two games, even losing to Getafe at home.
As for City, they haven’t been as rampant as they have been in recent years. Though they have been unbeaten in their last five, winning four and drawing one game, the Cityzens are currently second in the Premier League, seven points adrift of leaders Arsenal, with a game in hand. Their Champions League campaign has been decent, though, as they managed to secure automatic last-16 qualification, though they were beaten by Bodø/Glimt and Bayer Leverkusen in the league phase.
From a personnel-availability point of view, Real Madrid have massive issues. Rodrygo, David Alaba, Éder Militão, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham, and Kylian Mbappé are all out, with Álvaro Carreras doubtful for this game. City will miss Joško Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic, with Max Alleyne doubtful for this encounter.
With star striker Erling Haaland fit and available for this encounter, Pep Guardiola has received a much-needed boost of confidence, especially with main man Mbappé missing in the other camp. Also, with City due to play the second leg at home, they have a slight advantage and can settle for a draw here. It’s imperative for Real Madrid to get a big win at home, so that they can defend their lead at the Etihad.
If we look at the two teams, Real Madrid do look slightly weaker in terms of player form. Tactics will also prove to be a key deciding factor, as Pep Guardiola is far more experienced and superior as a coach compared to the fairly inexperienced Álvaro Arbeloa.
Having defeated Real Madrid already in the Champions League this season, we believe this could be another victory for the Cityzens, who should be taking away at least a one-goal advantage back to the Etihad.
Score Prediction: Real Madrid 1–2 Man City
Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea
The finalists of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup will face each other in this massive clash in the Round of 16. Although Chelsea got the better of PSG in the Club World Cup final, they have since dismissed the coach who took them to that title and have largely blown hot and cold this season.
The defending champions, on the other hand, have failed to perform well in the league phase this season and struggled against Monaco in the play-offs, though they did manage to reach the last 16. Unlike last season, their Ligue 1 form hasn’t been dominant either, and they’re leading the French league by only a point after 25 games. Les Parisiens lost their most recent league encounter against Monaco, which was their first defeat in their last five outings.
As for the Blues, they have shown a decent run of form, only losing to Arsenal and winning three and drawing one in their last five games. Brazilian forward João Pedro has looked in sublime form over the past few games and could prove to be a huge problem for the PSG backline.
Chelsea might go with a conservative approach in this game, given they are playing the second leg at home. However, PSG are very dominant at the Parc des Princes, and stopping them will be a huge task for the Chelsea defence.
From an injury perspective, PSG might miss two of their midfield trio in Fabián Ruiz and João Neves, with Quentin Ndjantou also out for this game. Chelsea, meanwhile, will have Levi Colwill, Estêvão, and Jamie Gittens unavailable for this game.
PSG play a very attacking brand of football, with their fullbacks running forward from wide positions and creating havoc for the opposition defenders. Their forward line is equally dangerous, with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué, and Bradley Barcola all capable of running at defenders and creating goal-scoring opportunities. If Chelsea don’t defend well, this tie could be over in the first leg itself, as PSG will go all guns blazing at home, knowing they need to take a substantial lead to Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea may be put on the back foot from the word go, but they too can cause issues for the PSG defence, thanks to the likes of Pedro Neto, João Pedro, and Cole Palmer. Moreover, the Blues need to be careful about fouls leading to red-card offences, as they have been culpable of reckless fouls that have led to sendings-off, making them the worst-disciplined side in the Premier League this season.
Even though PSG haven’t hit the ground running this season, they are still a well-coached team and are more than capable of taking on any team in the world with their attacking quality and positive intent. Hence, we believe this could be an entertaining game, which PSG should win by a decent margin.
Score Prediction: PSG 3–1 Chelsea
Newcastle United vs Barcelona
A 12th-placed league phase finish, while far from remarkable, has led to Newcastle reaching the knockout rounds of the Champions League for the first time in their history. Now, they gear up for their first appearance in the Champions League Round of 16.
However, domestic chaos continues to reign supreme for the Magpies, who in recent weeks have suffered a crushing 3–2 Premier League home loss to Everton, defeated Manchester United 2–1 with ten men, and, most recently, been beaten 3–1 by Manchester City in the FA Cup.
Eddie Howe’s long-term future at St James’ Park remains a topic for debate as consistency eludes Newcastle, but his team remain a fabulous watch for the neutrals, having both scored and conceded in each of their last 12 games across all competitions.
As for their opponents, Barcelona’s league phase campaign was as frenetic as could be expected, as their eight games saw the joint-highest number of overall goals with 36 (22 scored and 14 conceded) — level with Borussia Dortmund. No team in the top 13 let in more goals than the reigning LaLiga champions, though Hansi Flick has done a sterling job of shoring up the Blaugrana defence in recent times.
Barcelona’s recent 1–0 win over Athletic Club in LaLiga on Saturday saw the side keep their eighth clean sheet across all competitions in 2026; at the time of writing, only Inter Milan (9) have registered more clean sheets in Europe’s big five leagues since the turn of the year.
Besides, Barça have emerged victorious in each of their last five Champions League last-16 ties against English opponents, with Flick overseeing a 2–1 triumph at St James’ Park in September’s league phase clash thanks to a brace from Manchester United loanee Marcus Rashford.
In terms of team news and injuries, Emil Krafth (knee), Lewis Miley (thigh), Fabian Schär (ankle), and indispensable midfielder Bruno Guimarães (thigh) will all miss the visit of Barcelona. The visitors, meanwhile, are guaranteed to be missing Alejandro Balde (hamstring), Gavi (knee), Frenkie de Jong (hamstring), Jules Koundé (hamstring), and Andreas Christensen (ACL) for this week’s showdown, and none may return in time for the second leg either.
Looking ahead to this fixture, for all of Barcelona’s diligent defensive work in recent weeks, Flick’s side have gone 11 games without a clean sheet in the Champions League, and that streak should stretch to 12 at a raucous St James’ Park. That said, Barça will still fight fire with fire to claim a first-leg advantage, though it may only be a slender one due to a number of key absences, with Newcastle looking to keep the tie alive before travelling to Camp Nou.
Score Prediction: Newcastle 2–3 Barça
Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur
As was the case during the iconic Ange Postecoglou second season, continental competition has provided Tottenham with a safe haven while their Premier League campaign continues to unravel — at least up to this point.
A team who cannot buy a win in the English top flight earned no fewer than five wins in the league phase of the Champions League, including statement 2–0 victories over Bundesliga outfits Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt to finish fourth in the 36-team table.
In the eyes of many, Spurs’ stellar European displays and pitiful domestic performances say a great deal about the quality of football in England compared to other big five leagues. However, Thursday’s 3–1 loss to Crystal Palace, in which Igor Tudor’s men took the lead before imploding, saw them set a new unwanted club record of going 11 consecutive Premier League games without a win. They now lie just one point above the dreaded relegation zone.
On the other hand, after finishing three points and ten places worse off than Spurs in the league phase, Atlético Madrid survived a tricky play-off tie against Club Brugge to earn a date with the Lilywhites. Diego Simeone’s side shared the spoils in a six-goal thriller during the first leg, before an Alexander Sørloth-inspired 4–1 success on their own turf sent them through to the last 16.
Known for their staunch defensive approach, Atleti ended the league phase with the worst defensive record of all top-16 clubs and conceded 15 goals. They have shown little since then to suggest that their issues at the back could be fixed anytime soon.
Indeed, Simeone’s men have shipped five goals in their last two games, albeit inconsequentially; a 3–0 Copa del Rey loss to Barcelona meant nothing thanks to their 4–0 first-leg battering of the Catalan side, while they beat Real Sociedad 3–2 away from home last Saturday. The latter result also marked a fourth straight home win for the Rojiblancos, a run during which time they have scored at least three goals in each game.
In terms of team news and injuries, Igor Tudor will be hoping to have Djed Spence and Destiny Udogie back from injury, while Wilson Odobert (ACL), James Maddison (ACL), Dejan Kulusevski (knee), Ben Davies (ankle), Lucas Bergvall (ankle), Mohammed Kudus (thigh), and Rodrigo Bentancur (thigh) are still out. Radu Dragusin missed Thursday’s loss due to a knock and will need a once-over too.
As for Atleti, January signing Rodrigo Mendoza came off at half time against Real Sociedad due to an ankle problem. Mendoza is just one of two fitness concerns for Simeone at present, though, and the other — Pablo Barrios, who has a hamstring issue — may make himself available for the Spurs visit.
With both Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven back together, Spurs should have some stability at the back, but they are still lacking in attacking ideas and a clear identity under Tudor. Their domestic troubles might have meant nothing against Dortmund and Frankfurt, but an Atleti side with a taste for goals at home should be able to put one foot firmly in the quarter-finals with a decisive win here.
Score Prediction: Atleti 3–0 Spurs
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
Two “invincibles” of the 21st century collide in the last 16 of the 2025/26 Champions League, as Bayer Leverkusen welcome Arsenal to the BayArena for Wednesday’s first leg.
Famously going through an entire league season unbeaten 20 years after Arsène Wenger’s Arsenal, Leverkusen have inevitably regressed since ending Bayern’s reign of perpetual Bundesliga dominance.
The less said about Erik ten Hag’s brief disastrous spell in charge, the better, but former Denmark head coach Kasper Hjulmand has steadied the ship; Leverkusen are three points off the top four in the Bundesliga table domestically and are in the last 16 of the Champions League for a second straight season.
Having secured an unspectacular 16th-placed finish in the league phase, Leverkusen secured a 2–0 win away at Olympiacos in the first leg of their play-off tie. Firmly in control of their last-16 destiny, a goalless draw on their own turf was good enough to secure progression into the Round of 16. However, that stalemate means the hosts have only won one of their last five games across all competitions. They were held to an enthralling 3–3 stalemate by Freiburg in their most recent Bundesliga showdown.
That said, results at the BayArena over the past two months tell a different story. Hjulmand’s men have strung together a six-match unbeaten streak at their home ground, conceding just one goal in those 540 minutes of football.
In the other camp, yet to taste their first piece of European silverware — barring one UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup in 1994 — Arsenal laid down the marker with eight straight wins in a dominant league-phase campaign. Mikel Arteta masterminded successes against the likes of Atlético Madrid, long-time nemeses Bayern Munich, and 2024/25 runners-up Inter Milan, ultimately clinching first place unchallenged while boasting both the best offensive (23 goals scored) and defensive (four goals conceded) records in the league phase.
With the knockout draw falling very kindly to the Gunners, who cannot meet any of Real Madrid, Liverpool, PSG, Bayern, or Man City before the final, the expectation that 2026 will finally be the year of the Big Ears adorning the Arsenal red and white is only growing.
Arsenal are heading to Germany on the back of winning four straight games across all tournaments. A second-string side edged out plucky Mansfield Town 2–1 in the FA Cup fifth round, a result that saw the Gunners score two or more goals away from home for the eighth time in 11 matches.
In terms of team news and injuries, for Arsenal, William Saliba (ankle), Martin Ødegaard (knee), and Ben White (knock) are more doubtful at this stage, while Leandro Trossard and Riccardo Calafiori were also withdrawn with issues at the weekend, plunging their availability into uncertainty.
As far as the hosts are concerned, Bayer Leverkusen are far from tip-top shape for the first leg either, as Mark Flekken (knee), Loïc Badé (hamstring), Arthur (ligament), Lucas Vázquez (calf), Eliesse Ben Seghir (calf), Nathan Tella (foot), and Patrik Schick (muscle) are ruled out for this crucial European tie.
Looking ahead to this fixture, against all of Chelsea, Brighton & Hove Albion, and Mansfield Town, Arsenal’s games followed the same template: find an early goal, secure the mid-block, and let the opposition recycle possession. While it might not be pleasing to the eye, it is highly functional and, evidently, effective.
Although Leverkusen’s rearguard excellence at home makes for positive reading for the Werkself faithful, given their injury problems and overall patchy form, Arsenal should head home with a narrow but invaluable advantage.
Score Prediction: Leverkusen 0–1 Arsenal
Bodø/Glimt vs Sporting
The standout surprise of this season, Bodø/Glimt have taken the competition by storm in their first foray into the Champions League proper, a journey that has already featured a series of giant-killing acts.
The Norwegian outfit produced a late charge to secure a rare play-off berth after going unbeaten in their final three league phase matches, drawing 2–2 at Borussia Dortmund before securing victories over Man City (3–1) and Atlético Madrid (2–1) for a 23rd-place finish.
Tasked with a daunting challenge of overcoming three-time European champions Inter Milan in the play-off round, the Scandinavian side registered an impressive 3–1 victory at Aspmyra Stadion before pressing home their advantage in the return leg at San Siro, where two goals from Jens Petter Hauge and Håkon Evjen sealed a memorable 2–1 win on the night and a sensational 5–2 win on aggregate.
Having become the first Norwegian club to record four consecutive victories in the Champions League proper, as well as the first side from the country to win a knockout tie in the competition, Bodø will certainly back themselves to extend their remarkable run. Besides, the four-time Norwegian champions can also be confident of seizing control of this Round of 16 tie given their impressive home record in Europe, having won 12 of their last 17 continental matches at Aspmyra.
On the other hand, having taken to the pitch more recently than their Scandinavian hosts, Sporting had to settle for a 2–2 draw at Braga on Saturday despite taking the lead twice in the first half through Gonçalo Inácio and Luis Suárez, eventually conceding from a stoppage-time penalty.
While the result kept the Leões second in the Primeira Liga table and four points adrift of the summit, the draw also means Rui Borges’s men have now gone 12 games across all competitions without defeat (ten wins, two draws).
While the Lisbon outfit bypassed the play-offs — where they were eliminated last season by Borussia Dortmund — they still have a precedent to contend with at this stage, having lost both of their previous Round of 16 ties. They suffered a 12–1 aggregate defeat to Bayern Munich in 2008/09 and a 5–0 loss to Manchester City across both legs in 2021/22.
Those results contribute to Sporting’s continental struggles on the road, with the Portuguese side without an away victory at this stage or beyond in 15 European matches since 2005 (six draws, nine defeats), suggesting they could face a difficult test at Glimt on Wednesday.
In terms of team news and injuries, Bodø appear to have a full squad available, with no players suspended for this encounter, although midfield duo Sondre Auklend and Patrick Berg are one booking away from a ban. As for Sporting, they will remain without winger Geovany Quenda (foot injury), while Giorgi Kochorashvili, Ricardo Mangas, and Fotis Ioannidis could miss out again due to physical discomfort. Sporting will also be without left-back Maximiliano Araújo and midfielder Pedro Gonçalves, both of whom are suspended due to an accumulation of bookings.
Looking ahead to this fixture, Bodø/Glimt have developed a reputation for making life difficult for opponents at Aspmyra, and after putting heavyweights Man City and Inter to the sword in their last two games at this ground, they will be confident of getting the better of a Sporting side that has looked less convincing in continental outings on the road.
Score Prediction: Bodø 2–1 Sporting
