Have Arsenal handed Man City the advantage in the Premier League title run-in? 

After their humiliating draw at Molineux Stadium, Mikel Arteta’s title-chasing Gunners have now won just two of their past seven matches in the Premier League — a dire streak considering how ruthless Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City can be in title run-ins. 

Following Tom Edozie’s stoppage time equaliser for Wolves, for the first time in months, City have destiny in their own hands. Guardiola knows that his team will be crowned champions of England if they win all their remaining fixtures, including a feisty home encounter against Arsenal in April. 

Wobbling while leading

Arsenal have failed to win despite taking the lead in three of their last five league matches. They took the lead in the 29th minute against Manchester United but went on to register their first home defeat of the season. Against Brentford, they went 1–0 up in the 61st minute but ultimately drew 1–1. And in their last fixture against bottom-of-the-table Wolves, they were leading by two goals after the hour mark but could only come away with a point after conceding a 94th-minute equaliser.

How do you explain this sudden inability to hold on to leads? Part of it, of course, is related to how the opposition teams attack while trailing. However, surely there are also questions to ask of Arsenal’s collective mindset in these games?

Instead of taking the initiative and pushing forward to build on these leads, Arsenal have been more conservative and ponderous after taking the lead. In all three of these matches, they also became sloppier on the ball.

At home against United, for example, it was a silly error by Martin Zubimendi that allowed Bryan Mbeumo to score. Against Brentford last week, Arsenal simply stopped playing; in the ten minutes in which they were leading the match, Arteta’s side had just 28% possession and conceded four shots while taking none of their own.

Key players looking exhausted

The two outfielders who have played the most minutes for Arsenal this season are Martín Zubimendi and Jurriën Timber. Both of them have been excellent for most of the campaign, but both also look increasingly jaded. Timber, especially, has been visibly struggling in recent games and was significantly below his usual levels against Wolves.

Zubimendi, meanwhile, is in his first season in English football, which is notoriously more physically demanding than LaLiga. He has been an excellent addition to the squad and a candidate for the Player of the Season award, but Arsenal need him to be at his sharpest for their system to work at maximum efficiency.

Has the time come for Arteta to take his trusted deputies out of the firing line, for a little while at least? The ever-reliable Ben White has shown over the years that he is more than capable of excelling at right-back — in fact, he was one of the best right-backs in the league before Timber took his place. There is an argument to be made that Arsenal’s attack is more cohesive and inventive when White is charging down the right wing.

As for Zubimendi, his backup is Christian Nørgaard. Arsenal paid around £10 million to sign the veteran Dane from Brentford, where he was the captain, but they have hardly played him since. He has not started a single Premier League match so far this season. Moreover, with both captain Martin Ødegaard and Mikel Merino injured, Mikel Arteta is left with very little room to work with. The mercurial Declan Rice is another option, though Arteta needs to carefully manage his minutes before he too starts breaking down in the business end of the season.

Raya’s struggles in goal

Since the turn of the year, Arsenal have conceded an unusual number of goals from long range. Bournemouth’s Eli Junior Kroupi, Man United’s Patrick Dorgu and Matheus Cunha, and Wolves wingback Hugo Bueno have all beaten David Raya from distance.

This could be a simple coincidence, with the Gunners simply unlucky to face so many excellent strikes from range in such a short space of time, but a deeper look at the statistics suggests this might be one of Raya’s genuine weaknesses, though he is otherwise an exceptionally good goalkeeper for Arsenal.

In the Premier League this season, Raya has faced 13 shots on target from outside the box; six of those have gone into the net. The Spaniard’s save percentage of shots on target from outside the box is 54%, which is by far the lowest of goalkeepers in the Premier League this season. Only one other goalkeeper, Wolves’ Sam Johnstone, is below 70%.

Freak goals undermining defensive security

Before the turn of the year, Arsenal conceded an average of just 0.63 goals per game in the Premier League. Since January, they have conceded one goal per game. Clearly, their defence is weakening.

However, when one actually looks at the underlying metrics, Arsenal are conceding fewer high-quality chances. Their expected goals against (xGA) before January was 0.71 per 90, compared to 0.62 since the start of 2026.

To an extent, this points towards long-range screamers and a few self-inflicted errors as the main reasons behind their recent defensive frailties. A miscommunication between Raya and Gabriel Magalhães allowed Wolves to score in midweek, for example, while it was a mistake by Zubimendi that let United score in January.

Who holds the edge in the title run-in?

History has shown us how strong Guardiola’s Man City can be down the final stretch, while Arsenal have faced accusations of weak mentality and an inability to deal with the pressure that comes with a title race.

Since Arteta took charge in 2019, his teams have been plagued by massive slumps in the final few months of the season. Most of the time, it was injuries that derailed their title charge, while last season they shifted focus elsewhere after finding themselves too far behind the eventual champions, Liverpool. 

Indeed, in three of the last four years, when they’ve been in and around a title charge, Arsenal have endured shocking drop-offs compared to Man City. Even during their strongest campaign, the 2023/24 season, they came up short against the Cityzens, whose ruthless search for glory tends to intensify, especially at this stage of the season.

During the final run-in of the 2021/22 season, Arsenal won just six of their last 12 games, losing the other six and ultimately missing out on a Champions League qualification spot to bitter rivals Spurs, who also beat the Gunners 3–0 with three games to go.

The 2022/23 season was the first time when Arsenal made real title noise under Arteta. After 29 games, they were eight points clear of City, although City still had two games in hand, including one against them at the Etihad. Costly draws against West Ham United and bottom-side Southampton were followed by a 4–1 thumping at the hands of Guardiola’s men, who won ten more points over the final 12 games to complete the three-peat.

Labelled “bottlers”, the following season Arsenal actually did their best to banish the narrative. 31 points from a possible 36 was the sort of form which had delivered the title to City in years prior, but Guardiola’s side managed to go one better. With 32 points, including one in a 0–0 draw with Arsenal, City were crowned champions in the 2023/24 season, thus winning a record fourth successive league title.

Unfortunately for Arsenal and Man City, both clubs suffered injuries and consequent dips in form during the 2024/25 season, letting Arne Slot’s Liverpool run out of sight even before the final run-in. As a result, Arsenal focused on European football, where they narrowly missed out against eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League semi-finals, while City got stuck in a fight for a top-four finish after an abysmal first half of the season.

However, looking at how the two teams stack up against each other when comparing their final run-in this time around, Man City do seem to have the easier set of fixtures on paper.

In the next three Gameweeks, Arsenal face Tottenham (A), Chelsea (H), and Brighton (A), while Man City have Newcastle (H), Leeds (A), and Nottingham Forest (H). In the build-up to their big showdown in April, Arsenal will entertain Everton and Bournemouth at home, while the Cityzens will be in London visiting West Ham and Chelsea.

However, the final few Gameweeks get easier for Arsenal, who will face Newcastle (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), and Crystal Palace (A) in their final fixtures. Man City, meanwhile, will have Burnley (A), Everton (A), Brentford (H), Bournemouth (A), Aston Villa (H), and Crystal Palace (H) to round out their league campaign.

That said, games are rarely won on paper, and whom you encounter and at what stage of the season also plays a huge factor. For example, by the time Arsenal face the likes of Fulham, West Ham, and Palace, they all could be safely mid-table — “on the beach”, so to speak — and not pose the same threat as someone fighting for something. On the other hand, this can also be true for both Arsenal and Man City, who are competing on all fronts.

Conclusion 

As history tells us, Man City hardly falter when the pressure ramps up on them. Although a lot of new faces have come through the door at the Etihad, Pep Guardiola still has some serial winners in his squad, who know what it takes to get the job done. 

Both teams find themselves in the same position they were the last couple of times heading into the final 12 games of the campaign. And thanks to April’s meeting between the two, both Arsenal and City are in control of their own respective destinies, knowing that winning all games will guarantee success regardless of how the other side performs.

However, given how strong this league has become, I’m very certain neither side can go on such a winning run. In reality, nothing has changed for Arsenal, who are still in a comfortable position as leaders, with the added bonus of being able to draw that game against City — a privilege not extended to Guardiola’s side.

City have the edge in the record books, however. Guardiola is at his best in these moments, and Arteta now faces another opportunity to prove he deserves to sit at the same table as his mentor.