The Max Verstappen to Mercedes saga has been going on for over a year now. With both Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff and Max’s father, Jos Verstappen, being the chief architects in pushing for this move, the four-time world champion has thus far avoided the subject and emphasized that he’s solely focused on clawing back into the 2025 championship—for now.
However, to make sense of everything going on around the F1 paddock and the media frenzy, it’s essential to sift through the statements for substance and dismiss those made to muddy the waters.
Paddock Speculation
Despite being officially under contract with Red Bull until the end of the 2028 season, Verstappen has been heavily linked with a move away from the team at the end of this year.
Christian Horner, the Red Bull team principal, confirmed to the media last season that Verstappen’s contract contains a “performance element” that would theoretically allow him to leave before 2028 if the team fails to provide a competitive car.
It is believed Verstappen will be free to activate an exit clause if he is lower than third in the Drivers’ standings after next month’s Hungarian Grand Prix, the final race before F1’s summer break.
The Dutchman currently occupies third place in the championship, with a nine-point lead over George Russell in fourth, while Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc sits 36 points behind Verstappen in fifth.
Although it appears Verstappen will not meet the criteria to activate his Red Bull exit clause as things stand, it is still possible he could force a switch to Mercedes for next season.
Sky Sports F1 expert Craig Slater has estimated—based on insider sources—that it could cost the 27-year-old over £100m to break free from his Red Bull deal, and that team and driver could eventually come to a compromise allowing him to walk away and join Mercedes.
According to Slater, it is quite possible that the Red Bull hierarchy have had internal discussions behind closed doors about losing Verstappen—or keeping an unhappy Verstappen.
The 27-year-old is believed to be earning a salary of £55 million ($75m/€63.6m at current exchange rates) in the 2025 F1 season, making him the highest-paid driver on the grid. The next best-paid driver is Lewis Hamilton, the seven-time World Champion, whose Ferrari contract is thought to be worth £41.8 million ($57m/€48.3m) per season.
The 2026 Regulations
The question of where to drive in 2026 is more complicated than in other years, with Formula 1 set for a sweeping regulation change on both the aerodynamic and engine sides.
In layman’s terms, that means a complete reset in the competitive order, with no accurate way of predicting who will dominate and who will struggle.
Many inside the paddock believe Mercedes are increasingly confident about their 2026 engine, with their preparations widely believed to be well ahead of the rest.
The Brackley-based outfit previously emerged as F1’s dominant force following the last major engine rule changes in 2014, sparking a record run of eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships and seven Drivers’ titles split between Lewis Hamilton (six) and Nico Rosberg (one).
However, that in itself is no guarantee of success—Mercedes are currently trailing McLaren, who use their engines.
Red Bull, on the other hand, are ending their title-winning Honda partnership after this year and will run their own engines next season, built in conjunction with Ford. The feeling within the Milton Keynes-based team is that the new project is unlikely to produce a class-leading engine right away, but it’s impossible to predict where they’ll stand in 2026.
Red Bull have always prided themselves on the strength of their car design department. However, with Adrian Newey now leading the charge at Aston Martin, there are plenty of unknowns for Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen heading into 2026.
What’s At Stake?
In the world of Formula 1, reading between the lines is always important. During the Spanish GP weekend, Mercedes-Benz Group chairman Ola Källenius praised the four-time world champion and hinted at the idea of Max in silver.
Källenius doesn’t speak often, so when he does, it’s usually with intent. It’s believed that at Mercedes’ Stuttgart headquarters, Verstappen is highly regarded and seen as a potential asset.
At Brackley, however, the outlook is more balanced. The 2026 regulation overhaul is viewed as a prime opportunity to return to the top after four difficult seasons. Mercedes’ 2026 programme has been carefully planned, beginning with their power unit project, which is rumoured to be among the most advanced in the new technical era.
In this context, bringing Verstappen onboard has both pros and cons. There’s no doubt what Max Verstappen would bring to the table, but his arrival would come with consequences.
The current Mercedes driver lineup—George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli—is the result of a long-term plan that began in 2017 when Russell joined the junior programme and continued two years later with Antonelli’s recruitment.
If Verstappen were to join, it’s likely Russell would be the one to make way. That would be no small sacrifice, considering Russell is having his best F1 season to date. Nine years of investment would essentially be undone, and Russell would likely seek a full release from any Mercedes obligations.
Antonelli, meanwhile, would need significant support—because in 2026, he’d be paired with the driver known as the ultimate “team-mate killer.” The risk that Verstappen could derail Wolff’s entire junior driver programme within one season is a very real possibility.
Another downside: if Mercedes succeed in 2026, much of the credit would likely go to Verstappen, continuing the title-winning legacy he started with Red Bull. Conversely, if the project underdelivers, Verstappen is unlikely to show the patience Russell has—it’s just not his style, and managing him would pose a greater challenge.
Of course, there are also major upsides. If, 12 months from now, Mercedes have the best engine package and are battling McLaren (also using Mercedes engines), Verstappen could be the deciding factor.
Moreover, poaching Verstappen from Red Bull would be a massive blow to the Milton Keynes outfit’s ambitions—not a minor point, given the intense rivalry between the two teams.
There’s also a final angle to consider: Verstappen could be using Mercedes’ interest as leverage to push for changes in Red Bull’s leadership structure—currently viewed as a “monarchy” under Christian Horner.
It’s true that the best drivers chase the best cars. And betting on Red Bull for 2026 will be a major gamble, as they debut as engine manufacturers. But Verstappen also knows how rare it is to find the kind of dominance he’s had at Red Bull—a team that built everything around him and gave him freedom no one else has enjoyed.
Changing teams wouldn’t just be a technical decision—it would be a life-changing one. While Mercedes may have the better car next season, everything will be far different from what he’s used to.
Ultimately, it’s up to Verstappen whether he wants to make the switch next season or wait another year to assess which team gives him the best shot post-2026 rule change. Whether it’s silver, navy, red, or green—only time will tell.
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