UCL 2025/26: Semi-finals second leg previews and predictions
Two thematically different fixtures produced two very different results but were equally engrossing, nonetheless. Last week’s first leg at the Metropolitano Stadium – a tale of three penalties – ended in a 1-1 stalemate, putting Mikel Arteta’s men at a marginal advantage ahead of their biggest European game in two decades. While defending champions Paris Saint-Germain eked out a one-goal advantage in a nine-goal thriller at the Parc des Princes against a frantic Bayern Munich side who await them – with equal firepower if not more – in the return fixture at the Allianz Arena.
Here, we present our previews and predictions for both second-leg encounters of the semi-final stage of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League.
Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid
A win, a draw, or even a narrow defeat would have been acceptable for Arsenal at the Metropolitano Stadium last week, so a two-goal stalemate was something you’d take any given day, however, there was a palpable sense of Gunners frustration at full time.
Both Viktor Gyokeres and Julian Alvarez held their nerve from 12 yards either side of the half-time whistle, but Arteta was left “furious” when his side had a second penalty overturned after a VAR review, during which his opposite number Diego Simeone was frenetically waving his arms behind referee Danny Makkelie.
Only Makkelie and his VAR team can answer whether the Eberechi Eze-David Hancko incident met the ‘clear and obvious’ threshold, but controversy aside, avoiding defeat away from home in the first leg of a Champions League semi-final is still nothing to be scoffed at.
Yet to suffer defeat in the 2025/26 Champions League season, Arsenal will set a new club record for their longest unbeaten streak in the competition (14 matches) if they can end their 20-year wait for another Champions League final. Moreover, recent European and domestic exploits suggest that Arteta’s men can do just that.
Following a wobbly period, Arsenal have now made it two wins from their last three matches with a routine 3-0 triumph over Fulham – albeit an illness-hit Fulham – on Saturday, moving six clear of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League table thanks to one of their most free-flowing displays in recent memory.
Furthermore, only one of the Gunners’ last 15 UEFA home games against Spanish clubs has ended in defeat – a 2-0 loss to Barcelona during the 2015/16 UCL Round of 16 stage – and it has been just over six months since Arsenal hit Atletico for four without reply in the league phase.
That said, that 4-0 hammering at the Emirates sparked an instant response from this week’s visitors, who went on to win their next seven games on the bounce to elevate their La Liga title credentials, but another trophyless season awaits Simeone’s men if they fail to come away from the Emirates with a positive result on Tuesday.
Atletico have already suffered Copa del Rey final heartbreak at the hands of Real Sociedad and have little on the line domestically, having already secured a top-four finish in La Liga. Therefore, unlike Arteta, Simeone was able to rest his full playing XI for the league fixture against Valencia – albeit one reinforced by Koke and Antoine Griezmann in the second half – and ran out 2-0 winners.
Matching Arsenal’s three-game unbeaten streak which includes a draw and two wins, Los Rojiblancos have rediscovered that winning feeling at the right time following a shocking springtime run, which saw them suffer seven losses in eight matches from mid-March till mid-April.
Moreover, Simeone’s side have progressed from six of their previous 10 European two-legged ties when drawing the first leg at home, and a Puskas Arena battle with one of Bayern Munich or Paris Saint-Germain will await Simeone’s side – who also overcame Arsenal in the 2017/18 Europa League semis – if they can break red and white hearts again.
In terms of team news and injuries, for the hosts, Bukayo Saka’s withdrawal at half-time during the weekend was only precautionary with Tuesday’s game in mind. While a last minute fitness call will be taken on both Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz’s availability. That said, both Jurien Timber and Mikel Merino remain sidelined for the foreseeable future.
As for the visitors, Atletico suffered a major scare in the first leg when Julian Alvarez hobbled off in the second half, but examinations have ruled out a serious injury for the Argentine, who is expected to lead the line in North London. Giuliano Simeone, Marcos Llorente, Alexander Sorloth and David Hancko were also spared at the weekend, but Jose Gimenez (unspecified) is more of a doubt, while Pablo Barrios and Nico Gonzalez are both sidelined.
Looking ahead to this intriguing semi-final second-leg, with the Premier League title still on the line, Arsenal were in no position to do an Atletico and rest 11 players against Fulham, but the Gunners could arguably be better for it, as Saka got 45 excellent minutes into his legs and Viktor Gyokeres bagged a morale-boosting brace.
Thus, facing an Atletico side renowned for a leaky defence away from home, having conceded at least twice in seven of their last 10 games on the road, we expect Arteta’s revitalised attack to fire the Gunners into their second Champions League final.
Score Prediction: Arsenal 3–1 Atleti (Arsenal progress 4–2 on aggregate)
