UCL 2025/26: Semi-finals second leg previews and predictions
Two thematically different fixtures produced two very different results last week, though they were equally engrossing nonetheless.
Last week’s first leg at the Metropolitano, a tale of three penalties, ended in a 1–1 stalemate, putting Mikel Arteta’s men at a marginal advantage ahead of their biggest European game in two decades. Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain, meanwhile, eked out a one-goal advantage in a nine-goal thriller at the Parc des Princes against a frantic Bayern Munich side, who await them with equal firepower, if not more, in the return fixture at the Allianz Arena.
Here, we present our previews and predictions for both second-leg encounters of the semi-final stage of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League.
Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid
A win, a draw, or even a narrow defeat would have been acceptable for Arsenal at the Metropolitano last week; a stalemate they’d take on any given day. However, there was a palpable sense of Gunners frustration at full-time.
Both Viktor Gyökeres and Julián Alvarez held their nerve from 12 yards either side of the half-time whistle, but Mikel Arteta was left “furious” when his side had a second penalty overturned after a VAR review, during which his opposite number Diego Simeone was frenetically waving his arms behind referee Danny Makkelie.
Only Makkelie and his VAR team can answer whether the Eberechi Eze–Dávid Hancko incident met the
“clear and obvious” threshold, but controversy aside, avoiding defeat away from home in the first leg of a Champions League semi-final is still nothing to be scoffed at.
Yet to suffer defeat in the 2025/26 Champions League season, Arsenal will set a new record for their longest unbeaten streak in the competition (14 matches) if they can end their 20-year wait for another Champions League final. Moreover, recent European and domestic exploits suggest that Arteta’s men can do just that.
Following a wobbly period, Arsenal have now made it two wins from their last three matches with a routine 3–0 triumph over Fulham — albeit an illness-hit Fulham — on Saturday, moving six clear of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League table thanks to one of their most free-flowing displays in recent memory.
Furthermore, only one of the Gunners’ last 15 UEFA home games against Spanish sides ended in defeat (a 2–0 loss to Barcelona during the 2015/16 UCL round of 16), while it has been just over six months since Arsenal hit Atleti for four without reply in the league phase.
That said, that 4–0 hammering at the Emirates sparked an instant response from this week’s visitors, who went on to win their next seven games on the bounce to elevate their LaLiga title credentials, but another trophyless season awaits Simeone’s men if they fail to come away from the Emirates with a positive result on Tuesday.
The Rojiblancos have already suffered Copa del Rey final heartbreak at the hands of Real Sociedad and have little on the line domestically, having already secured a top-four finish in LaLiga. Therefore, unlike Arteta, Simeone was able to rest his full playing XI for the league fixture against Valencia, albeit one reinforced by Koke and Antoine Griezmann in the second half, in a game they won 2–0.
Matching Arsenal’s three-game unbeaten streak, which includes a draw and two wins, the Colchoneros have rediscovered that winning feeling at the right time following a shocking spring-time run that saw them suffer seven losses in eight matches across March and April.
Moreover, Simeone’s side have progressed from six of their previous ten European two-legged ties when drawing the first leg at home, and a Puskás Aréna battle with one of Bayern Munich or PSG will await Simeone’s side, who also overcame Arsenal in the 2017/18 Europa League semis, if they can break red-and-white hearts again.
In terms of team news and injuries, for the hosts, Bukayo Saka’s withdrawal at half-time during the weekend was only precautionary with Tuesday’s game in mind, while a last-minute fitness call will decide both Martin Ødegaard and Kai Havertz’s availability. Meanwhile, both Jurriën Timber and Mikel Merino remain sidelined for the foreseeable future.
As for the visitors, Atleti suffered a major scare in the first leg when Julián Alvarez hobbled off in the second half, but examinations have ruled out a serious injury for the Argentine, who is expected to lead the line in north London. Giuliano Simeone, Marcos Llorente, Alexander Sørloth, and Dávid Hancko were also spared at the weekend, but José María Giménez (unspecified injury) is more of a doubt, while Pablo Barrios and Nicolás González are both sidelined.
Looking ahead to this intriguing semi-final second leg, with the Premier League title still on the line, Arsenal were in no position to do what Atleti did and rest 11 players against Fulham, but the Gunners could arguably be better for it, as Saka got 45 excellent minutes into his legs and Viktor Gyökeres bagged a morale-boosting brace.
Facing an Atlético Madrid side renowned for a leaky defence away from home, having conceded at least twice in seven of their last ten games on the road, we expect Arteta’s revitalised attackers to fire the team into their second Champions League final.
Score Prediction: Arsenal 3–1 Atleti (Arsenal progress 4–2 on aggregate)
Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain
The first leg between these two sides was an absolute blockbuster, thrilling, edge-of-the-seat encounter. It was played in such a frenzy that, as a viewer, you couldn’t dare to even blink for fear of missing an important moment. Both PSG and Bayern played their part in the highest-scoring Champions League knockout game to date — a nine-goal thriller with both sides punching and counter-punching in a breathless display of attacking football.
Bayern’s sensational attacking trio of Luis Díaz, Harry Kane, and Michael Olise all scored, while PSG’s forward line fared somehow even better, as Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Ousmane Dembélé both scored a brace.
Both Bayern and PSG have been the standout attacking teams in Europe this season, and it wasn’t really a surprise to see their attackers show their class in this all-important clash. Olise was particularly impressive against the ever-solid Nuno Mendes, who seemed to be chasing shadows all evening as the French winger put up one of his best performances in Champions League knockout history.
Though Kane opened the scoring from the spot, Kvaratskhelia equalised with a brilliant finish. João Neves then helped PSG to a lead with a cracking headed goal, before Olise equalised at the other end. Dembélé’s penalty gave PSG a 3–2 lead at the end of an absorbing first half of football.
The hosts then raced to a 5–2 lead in the second half, with Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia scoring again. The Bavarians, looking dead and buried, Kompany’s men showed great intent and fight to force their way back into the game with the help of a Dayot Upamecano header and an incredible Luis Díaz finish. All nine goals were scored before the 70th-minute mark, such was the frantic pace of the game. The game ended 5–4, with all to play for in the second leg.
There could be questions asked of the defensive backlines of both teams, though it was more down to the impressive quality of both attacks rather than poor defending, barring a few instances.
PSG did win, but they would definitely be disappointed given that they threw away a three-goal advantage and will go into the second leg at the Allianz Arena with only a one-goal lead.
As for injury issues, Bayern have most of their first-choice players fit, barring a few absentees. Lennart Karl, Serge Gnabry, Wisdom Mike, David Santos, Raphaël Guerreiro, and Cassiano Kiala are out for this fixture. PSG, meanwhile, have Lucas Chevalier, Achraf Hakimi, and Quentin Ndjantou doubtful for this game.
Bayern’s performances at home in the Champions League have been exceptional, to say the least. They annihilate teams at home, though against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals they did look nervous and allowed them back into the game; they did win after the Spanish giants went down to ten men, however. That game showed a vulnerability in the Bavarians’ setup that the PSG attackers may try to exploit.
It’s not going to be an easy game for either side, but since Bayern have the home advantage and Vincent Kompany is back in the dugout, this is a tie where they have a slight edge. We also believe this could be a cagey affair, where if PSG take the lead, they will try to preserve it rather than going all out. As for Bayern, they don’t have an option other than attack as they are a goal behind, which could play into PSG’s hands as they have pacy wingers who can take advantage of turnovers and transitions.
This is going to be a complex tactical battle between Luis Enrique and Vincent Kompany, as both managers will have to find that fine balance between attack and defence. Though Bayern’s attack is more dangerous and clinical than their opponents’, the visitors have a superior midfield. Vitinha, João Neves, and Warren Zaïre-Emery have been exceptional so far, and that battle in the middle could very well decide the outcome of this game.
Having said that, we have a feeling that Bayern will edge out PSG in this encounter. They must be buoyed by that comeback at the Parc des Princes that has kept them alive in the tie. The six-time champions are the likelier side to progress to the Champions League final, with their front three poised to put up another brilliant performance.
Score Prediction: Bayern 3–1 PSG (Bayern progress 7–6 on aggregate)
