The Premier League isn’t called the most competitive league in the world for nothing. Season after season, it delivers chaos, heartbreak, and glory in equal measure.
Usually, the title race and the relegation battle go down to the wire, with fans living every moment on a knife’s edge. This year, however, the script has flipped. The title has already been secured, and the relegation zone has been locked.
Yet, just when it seemed the drama might fade, the race for the UEFA Champions League spots has exploded into life. With only four points separating third from seventh, every match feels like a final for those who are fighting to compete in Europe’s elite competition next season.
Based on England’s UEFA coefficient, the Premier League has been granted an extra spot for next season’s Champions League. With Liverpool having secured the title and second-placed Arsenal five points ahead of the team in third, here we look at the teams placed third to seventh and their chances of making the UCL next season.
Manchester City | 4th with 61 points after 34 games
The 2024/25 season has been a massive fall from grace for Pep Guardiola’s side. After achieving an unprecedented four-peat of PL titles last season, everyone expected City to be in the title race once again, but the reality has been vastly different, as an ageing squad and critical players not performing put the Cityzens out of the title race by November.
Even though Guardiola tried to fix the more obvious issues with signings in the January transfer window, City continued to struggle for consistency. However, they are on an upward trajectory now with four wins and a draw out of their last five games. Their most recent dramatic late win against an in-form Aston Villa would have given them a lot of confidence, and given they have both quality players and the experience of late runs, the Sky Blues look certain of securing a top-five finish.
Looking at their remaining fixtures, City play Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), Southampton (A), Fulham (A), and Bournemouth (H), which all are relatively easy fixtures to handle.
Newcastle United | 3rd with 62 points after 34 games
The Magpies didn’t start the season well but have come into their own since January. Currently, they are one of the most in-form teams in the league with four wins in their last five games.
The recently-crowned Carabao Cup winners have shown exceptional form in recent months and look dangerous. Boasting top-class players like Alexander Isak, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Jacob Murphy, and Anthony Gordon, Newcastle ran out comfortable winners against Ipswich Town in their last league game, shrugging off the disappointing thrashing they’d received at the hands of Aston Villa. Currently third in the table, they have a great chance to make the UCL next season.
Looking at their upcoming fixtures, Newcastle play Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A) and Everton (H). These aren’t going to be easy fixtures, and they haven’t been really consistent away from home, though I back them to win at least three of these games and make the UCL.
Nottingham Forest | 6th with 60 points after 33 games
The Tricky Trees have been the surprise package this season. From almost getting relegated last season to making the UCL would be a story for the ages.
Nuno Espírito Santo has done a commendable job with this Forest team that were struggling for top-flight survival last season. Most of his players have been consistent, while some have been simply superb. The likes of Chris Wood, Morgan Gibbs-White, and Anthony Elanga have led the attacking line well, while Murillo, Ola Aina, and Nikola Milenkovic have been solid at the back. Their first-choice goalkeeper, Matz Sels, has been a rock between the sticks, having kept the most clean sheets in the league so far.
Looking at their remaining fixtures, Forest are due to play Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester City (H), West Ham United (A), and Chelsea (H).
Forest have suffered a dip in form in recent weeks, due to which their quest for a top-five finish has gone off the rails a bit. Looking at their remaining fixtures, though, barring the Chelsea game they have relatively easy fixtures; if they can manage fatigue and injuries, UCL football will be theirs next season.
Chelsea | 5th with 60 points after 34 games
Chelsea have failed to make the UCL for the past three seasons and are desperate to qualify this time around. Under new head coach Enzo Maresca, the Blues had started the season on a positive note and were performing consistently until December. There were even distant shouts for a title charge.
However, injuries and poor form have stunted Chelsea’s charge in the second half of the season. Though they are still in with a chance, they haven’t looked convincing even in victory. Their last game against Everton was a cagey affair won by a solitary goal.
Goals have dried up in recent games as Chelsea have found it difficult to break down opposition defences. The lack of form of Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson has been concerning, with only Pedro Neto having provided the spark in the front line lately. In addition, Chelsea’s defensive line, including their first-choice keeper Robert Sánchez, has failed to offer a sense of calm and solidity.
Chelsea’s remaining fixtures list is the toughest of the UCL-chasing pack—they’re due to play Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), Manchester United (H), and Nottingham Forest (A). They also have the Europa Conference League to deal with.
Even though they have been in decent form, winning four of their last five matches looks like a Herculean task for the club that lifted the Champions League trophy a little under four years ago. I believe they’ll have to wait at least another season to return to the top-tier UEFA competition.
Aston Villa | 7th with 57 points after 34 games
Aston Villa surprised everyone last season when they qualified for the Champions League, but the fact that they are still fighting for UCL football is a surprise no longer. Under Unai Emery, Villa have transformed into an attacking outfit that can challenge even the best in Europe. They showed their might by defeating the likes of Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League this season. However, it was their participation in the Champions League that resulted in them suffering for form in the PL initially due to a limited squad.
Emery has built a great team, and adding the likes of Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio to the group in January has only made them more lethal. The likes of Morgan Rogers and Youri Tielemans have been a revelation this season, with main man Ollie Watkins continuing to provide the goals up front.
In their last PL game, the Villans absolutely annihilated an in-form Newcastle United to keep alive their hopes of a top-five finish. However, the loss to Crystal Palace in the FA Cup semi-final recently must have dented their confidence.
Looking at their remaining fixtures, Villa are due to play Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H), and Manchester United (A). These aren’t easy fixtures by any means, with Bournemouth and Fulham looking for European places themselves, while United and Spurs remain demanding fixtures regardless of the two teams’ dismal performances this season.
It’s not impossible, but in my opinion Villa have found form a little too late and will miss out on CL football next season.
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