Premier League 2025/26 title-race: will the ribbons be red or blue?

The all-important potential title-decider between league leaders Arsenal and challengers Manchester City at the Etihad last weekend has blown the title-race wide open now. Two back-to-back defeats to Bournemouth and Man City leaves the Gunners in a precarious position yet again. Pep Guardiola’s Cityzens needed just a blip to pounce again and with a game in hand and three points off Arsenal, the multiple Premier League champions are now smelling blood. With City playing midweek against relegation-bound Burnley, if they win that fixture with a big margin, the Sky Blues will go top of the table on goal difference, piling more pressure on Arsenal who are due to play at the weekend against Newcastle United. 

Let’s take a look at the remaining fixtures, how the two teams could approach these last few games followed by conclusion – 

Analysing the remaining Premier League fixtures for both – 

Looking at the above fixture list for both clubs, undoubtedly, Arsenal has an easier fixture list in comparison to Man City. Two of Arsenal’s three home games are particularly straightforward as they will face Fulham and Burnley, the only tricky home fixture is the one coming up this weekend against Newcastle United. Already under pressure after two straight defeats, Arsenal will be desperate to return to winning ways if they want to stay at the top of the table. As for their away fixtures, they are up against a relegation-threatened Hammers and a Crystal Palace who are also playing in the Conference League. 

As for the Cityzens, they do have a relatively tougher run as two of their three away fixtures against Everton and Bournemouth could be really tricky. The Toffees have always played well against Manchester City and the Cherries are on an unbeaten streak and a very challenging side to play away from home. Even their home games aren’t very straightforward as they play two teams vying for European places in Brentford and Aston Villa. 

If we solely consider the run-in, Arsenal definitely holds an advantage as their games both home and away appear easier on paper but what happens on the pitch is a different matter altogether as we have seen several times this season. No game in the Premier League is easy considering that we are moving closer to the end of the season with teams vying for European places and fighting for survival and they could spoil the party for either Arsenal or Man City in the title-race. 

Approach of both teams going into these fixtures – 

Arsenal: 

For most part of the season, Arsenal have been the table toppers and the favourites for the title. With eight games to go, Arsenal had a nine-point lead having played a game more and it was looking likely that they would win the title comfortably but the last two games have completely changed the complexion of this title-race. The Gunners squandered six-points in the last two games by suffering defeats in both games to Bournemouth and Manchester City and have now given City an opportunity to barge in. 

Although Arsenal has easier fixtures, they are also in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals and will have a more congested fixture list as compared to the Sky Blues. 

Playing the two ties of the Champions League semis will mean Arsenal will have to rotate smartly between their UCL and Premier League fixtures which is quite challenging as it’s difficult to decide which competition to prioritise.  

However, we believe that Arsenal do possess a quality squad and should not face many issues as they have multiple players in every position – a luxury not many clubs can boast. A concerning issue for them is their lack of intent from the beginning of the game and their ability to score goals from open play as they have been far too reliant on set-pieces. Injury to one of their talismanic players, Bukayo Saka has also affected them but their forward line needs to step up now as the title is within reach. Based on our observations of the Arsenal vs Man City game, we believe Mikel Arteta will coach them to be proactive and aggressive for the remainder of the season instead of sitting deep and relying on counters or set-pieces. 

Manchester City: 

Manchester City have been far from their ruthless best for the past season and a half. Even though they have been given an opportunity by Arsenal to get back into this title-race, they have been vulnerable at times and haven’t taken advantage when Arsenal has dropped points this season. Though it can be explained with the fact that Man City are in a transition phase having brought in several new players in the past two seasons. 

Pep Guardiola has also looked slack at times but since their departure from the Champions League, City have returned to winning ways and are displaying the form and mentality worthy of champions. They have already won the Carabao Cup, defeating Arsenal in the final and are on course for a domestic treble as they are still in the FA Cup semis and challenging for the Premier League title. 

What falls in City’s favour is that unlike Arsenal, they don’t have the distraction of the European competition and even the FA Cup semis is against a Championship side Southampton where they can rotate and still win the tie. Their new signings have also settled in and are looking comfortable with the rest of the squad. Also, taking into consideration their last few performances, their goal scorers are also looking particularly lethal. Having been given a new leash of life in this title-race, we believe City will go all out in all their Premier League fixtures, keeping a majority of the possession, showing intensity out of possession and creating goal scoring chances for their Norwegian marksman Erling Haaland. 

Their fixtures may look more difficult but looking at their quality, all of these games are winnable for an in-form Man City. 

Conclusion 

If we look at the past few seasons where Manchester City has been in a close title-race with either Liverpool or Arsenal, the Cityzens have ended up as the winners be it by either a point twice against Liverpool in 2017/18 and 2021/22 or two points against Arsenal in the 2022/23 season.  Pep Guardiola and his side are serial winners and know how to navigate these title run-ins. Though this is a different squad to the previous ones, they still possess some old experienced warhorses who can help them cross the line once again. 

Having said that, Arsenal has also been in a title-race thrice now, twice with Man City and once with Liverpool last season and they possess a much more settled side as compared to both the mentioned teams. However, if we look at their performances in past seasons, the month of April has spelt doom for the North London club as their performances start to dip as the season end approaches. For context, if we look at the stats from Sofascore, April is Arsenal’s worst month under Arteta since his arrival as manager in December 2019, with a win rate of just 41% and 1.54 points per game. In contrast, City steps up in April, and it has proved to be Pep Guardiola’s strongest month with 87.5% win rate and 2.71 points per game since he took charge in 2016/17. Playing in the Champions League is another distraction for Arsenal as they would want to reach the UCL final to try and win the most elite European competition that has eluded them until now. 

It’s not just about tactics or football at this point, it’s about momentum and mentality which is currently on the side of the Cityzens. The victory over their title rivals would have given them a huge lift in their bid to win the league yet again.Pep has more  experience of winning titles than Arteta and his Man City side had a  superior mentality and the kind of clinical finisher in Haaland that Arsenal don’t possess. 

If City beat Burnley with a big margin this midweek, they will go top of the table on goal difference and Arsenal would be under more pressure to bag the three points against a relatively difficult opposition in Newcastle United. It’s absolutely essential for Arsenal to win the game at the weekend, if it results in a draw or a loss, it would be a difficult road back into the title-race and a massive capitulation on the part of Arsenal who have led the league since October last year. 

Though we still expect a few twists and turns, we believe Manchester City now has the upper hand in this title-race and could go on to put blue ribbons on the Premier League Trophy yet again!