Premier League 2025/26 title race: Will the ribbons be red or blue?

The all-important potential Premier League title decider between top-of-the-table Arsenal and challengers Manchester City at the Etihad last weekend has blown the race wide open now.

Two back-to-back defeats to Bournemouth and Man City now leaves the Gunners in a precarious position yet again. Pep Guardiola’s men needed just a blip to pounce again, and with a game in hand and being just three points off Arsenal, the multiple-time league champions are smelling blood.

With City playing midweek against relegation-bound Burnley, if they win that fixture, they will go top of the table on goal difference, piling more pressure on Arsenal, who are due to play Newcastle United at the weekend. 

Here, we take a look at the remaining fixtures and speculate on how the two teams could approach them.

Looking at the remaining fixtures

Looking at both teams’ remaining games, Arsenal undoubtedly have an easier fixture list in comparison to Man City’s. Two of Arsenal’s three home games are particularly straightforward on paper, as they will face Fulham and Burnley in those two, with the only tricky home fixture being the one coming up this weekend against Newcastle United.

Already under pressure after two straight defeats, Arsenal will be desperate to return to winning ways if they want to stay at the top of the table. As for their away fixtures, they are up against a relegation-threatened West Ham side and Crystal Palace, who are also playing in the Conference League. 

As for the Cityzens, they do have a tougher run, as two of their three away fixtures against Everton and Bournemouth could be tricky. The Toffees have always played well against City, while the Cherries are on an unbeaten streak and a very challenging side to play away from home. Even City’s home games aren’t very straightforward, as they play two teams vying for European places in Brentford and Aston Villa. 

Based on the run-in alone, Arsenal definitely hold an advantage, as their games both home and away appear easier on paper. But what happens on the pitch is a different matter altogether, as we have seen several times this season. No game in the Premier League is easy; considering that we are moving closer to the end of the season, with teams vying for European places or fighting for survival, a lesser team on paper could very well spoil the party for either Arsenal or Man City. 

How do the two teams approach the run-in?

Arsenal

For most part of the season, Arsenal have been the table-toppers and favourites for the title. With eight games to go, they had a nine-point lead at the top, having played a game more. It was looking likely that they would win the title comfortably. But the last two games have completely changed the complexion of this title race. The Gunners have squandered six points in the last two games, losing to Bournemouth and Man City themselves, giving City an opportunity to barge in.

Although Arsenal have an easier run-in on paper, they are also in the Champions League semi-finals and will have a more congested fixture list as compared to City.

The two-legged nature of the Champions League semi-final tie means Arsenal will have to rotate smartly between their European and Premier League fixtures, which is quite challenging as it’s difficult to decide which competition to prioritise at this point of the season.

However, Arsenal do possess a quality squad and should not face many issues. They have multiple players in every position, a luxury not many clubs can afford. A concerning issue for them, however, is their lack of intent from the beginning of the game and their ability to score goals from open play, as they have been far too reliant on set pieces.

Furthermore, the injury to one of their most talismanic players, Bukayo Saka, has also affected them massively, but their forward line needs to step up now that the title is within reach. If their recent performance against City is anything to go by, we believe Mikel Arteta will coach his side to be proactive and aggressive for the remainder of the season instead of asking his players to sit deep and rely on counters and set pieces.

Manchester City

Manchester City have been far from their ruthless best for the past season and a half. Even though they have been given an opportunity by Arsenal to get back into this title race, they have been vulnerable at times and haven’t taken advantage when Arsenal have dropped points. That said, City are in a transition phase, having brought in several new players in the past two seasons.

Pep Guardiola has also looked slack at times, but since their departure from the Champions League, City have returned to winning ways and are displaying the form and mentality worthy of champions. They have already won the Carabao Cup, defeating Arsenal in the final, and are on course for a domestic treble, given they are still in the FA Cup semi-finals and challenging for the Premier League title.

What falls in City’s favour is that, unlike Arsenal, they don’t have the distraction of a European competition, and even their FA Cup semi-final tie is against a Championship side, Southampton, where they can rotate and still come out victors.

Their new signings have also settled in and are looking comfortable with the rest of the squad. Also, taking into consideration their last few performances, City’s goal-scorers are looking particularly lethal. Having been given a new leash of life in this title race, City will go all-out in all their remaining Premier League fixtures, keeping a majority of the possession, showing intensity out of it, and creating goal-scoring chances for their Norwegian marksman, Erling Haaland.

City’s fixtures may look more difficult on paper, but looking at their quality, all their remaining games are more than winnable for the in-form Cityzens.

Conclusion 

If we look at the past few seasons, when Manchester City have been in a close title race with either Liverpool or Arsenal, the Cityzens have ended up winners, be it by either a point twice against Liverpool in 2017/18 and 2021/22, or two points against Arsenal in 2022/23.

Pep Guardiola and his side are serial winners and know how to navigate these title run-ins. Though this is a different squad, there are still some old experienced warhorses who can help the team cross the line once again. 

Having said that, Arsenal have also been in a title race thrice now, twice with Man City and once with Liverpool, and possess a much more settled squad compared to previous times. However, if we look at their performances in past seasons, the month of April has spelled doom for the North London side, as their performances start to dip as the season end approaches.

For context, if we look at the stats from Sofascore, April is Arsenal’s worst month under Mikel Arteta since his arrival as manager in December 2019, with a win rate of just 41% and 1.54 points per game. In contrast, City step up in April, and it has proved to be Pep Guardiola’s strongest month; the Spaniard has managed a 87.5% win rate and 2.71 points per game since he took charge at the Etihad in 2016.

Playing in the Champions League is another distraction for Arsenal as they would want to reach the final this time around and try to clinch the coveted European trophy that has eluded them until now. 

It’s not just about tactics at this point; it’s about momentum and mentality, which is currently on City’s side. Their recent victory over their title rivals would have given them a huge lift in their bid to win the league yet again. Guardiola has more experience of winning titles than Arteta, and his Man City side boast a superior mentality as well as a clinical finisher in Haaland, the like of whom Arsenal do not have. 

If City beat Burnley with a big margin this midweek, they will go top of the table on goal difference, and Arsenal will be under more pressure to bag the three points against a rather difficult opposition in Newcastle United. It’s absolutely essential for Arsenal to win the game at the weekend, for if they drop points, it will result in a difficult road back into the title race and mark a massive capitulation on the part of the Gunners, who have led the league since October last year. 

Though we still expect a few twists and turns, we believe Manchester City now have the upper hand in this title race and could go on to put the blue ribbons on the Premier League trophy yet again.